A forecast said U.S. Treasuries yielding around 5 percent a year could be a more attractive investment than bitcoin and gold. On Sept. 18 local time, blockchain outlet U.Today reported that Bloomberg Intelligence chief macro strategist Mike McGlone singled out U.S. Treasuries as the main beneficiary of shifting capital.

McGlone described the current macro environment as the final phase for risk assets. He judged that incentives to hold bitcoin and gold weaken sharply when the U.S. government offers fixed returns of 5 percent a year in dollar terms through Treasuries.

He made the remarks after the U.S. Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75 percent to 4 percent as of Sept. 16, 2026. Around the same time, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury neared the psychological threshold of 5 percent, and global markets also faced upward pressure from rising energy prices.

McGlone saw gold as having difficulty competing with the real yield on government bonds because it has no coupon income. He assessed that bitcoin is trading more like a high-risk asset than a store of value in an environment with insufficient liquidity. He said large investors moving to preserve capital against a stock market decline could take profits in cryptocurrencies and shift to safe-haven assets.

Bloomberg Intelligence saw the ratio between the Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index and long-term bonds as having risen to extreme levels since 1990. In the past, such peaks appeared ahead of severe recessions and falling interest rates.

It added that this phase is different because the Fed is not pivoting to easing and continues tightening financial conditions. McGlone expected this trend to increase the risk of shocks to the global economy and stock markets, and that large-scale funds could move into U.S. Treasuries in the final stage of the monetary-tightening cycle.