Spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) could, over the long term, grow to as much as about three times the size of gold ETFs, a forecast said.

On Sept. 17, blockchain media outlet Bitcoin Magazine reported that Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said spot bitcoin ETF assets could significantly surpass gold ETFs. Bitcoin is currently highly volatile, but he judged that the character of the market could change over time.

Spot bitcoin ETFs were first launched in 2024 after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) delayed approval for more than 10 years. Since then, the product category has been cited as one of the most successful launches in ETF history, and assets under management are now nearing $100 billion, according to CoinGlass.

He likened bitcoin to “gold in its teenage years”. He said gold is an asset with 5,000 years of history, while bitcoin is only 17 years old, meaning it is still in an early stage of maturity. That time gap has led to differences in market trust and volatility, but he said the structure of demand could change as generations shift.

He pointed in particular to younger investors as a key driver of bitcoin market expansion. In an environment of expanding government spending and rising prices, he said younger generations are likely to look for alternatives to the existing financial system. Balchunas said Generation Z is pushing back against fiscal deficits and inflation, but bitcoin could be a better option. He also cited as a strength that the government cannot seize it.

The market is focusing more on bitcoin as a way to respond to currency depreciation than on its censorship resistance. A so-called debasement-hedge trade, in which money flows into non-yielding assets such as gold and bitcoin, drew attention once last year and is regaining interest in 2026 as the dollar remains weak.

Easing volatility was also presented as a condition for institutional inflows. Balchunas said a market turning point could come as bitcoin’s price volatility and its correlation with other assets move closer to gold. He added that, when that happens, large institutions may judge they are ready to accept it as a trusted store of value and, further, as a safe-haven asset and an alternative asset.

He noted that 2025 was the year bitcoin showed the lowest volatility in its short history. As a result, whether bitcoin can shift perception from a high-volatility risk asset to a store of value is emerging as a key variable for future expansion in the ETF market. Key points to watch next are whether early demand from retail investors can lead to institutional demand, and whether it can establish itself as an alternative asset competing with gold.

JUST IN: Bloomberg Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas says Bitcoin ETFs will ultimately triple gold "I think as the younger investors get more money and grow up with Bitcoin as their store of value, I do believe that Bitcoin ETFs will triple gold in assets." pic.twitter.com/GU3lp3KIuf