Bitcoin is holding the $76,000 level and maintaining a firm trend despite a setback to U.S. crypto regulatory legislation, a benchmark rate hike and large outflows from spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

On Sept. 17 (local time), blockchain outlet The Crypto Basic reported that bitcoin did not break far out of the $75,000 to $76,000 range this week despite multiple headwinds.

Regulation and monetary policy weighed on the market this week. The U.S. Senate on Sept. 15 rejected a procedural motion for the Clarity Act, which includes provisions to clarify the crypto regulatory framework, by a vote of 50-49. The next day, the U.S. Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by 0.25 percentage point to 3.75 to 4 percent, and officials also hinted at the possibility of further increases before the end of 2026.

Even so, the market is focusing on bitcoin's downside resilience. Trader Michael XBT said bitcoin had several reasons to fall this week but held a key support level. He said the market expected bitcoin to test a new low after the Clarity Act failed to advance and rates rose, but it instead held the $75,000 to $76,000 range, which he assessed as a bullish trend.

The price action was similar. Bitcoin at one point slipped to around $75,060 but later rebounded above $76,700. After falling from above $82,000, the $75,000 level has emerged as an important short-term price zone.

Fund flows were not supportive. About $450.4 million left spot bitcoin ETFs on Sept. 15 alone. That was the largest daily outflow since June 24. Still, the market is split in its reading as bitcoin remained relatively firm despite the large redemptions.

Bulls cite the return of long-term funds and on-chain indicators. Bitcoin analyst Willy Woo said he put the probability that a bear market bottom has already formed at 90 percent. He said long-term investor liquidity is flowing back into the market and judged that bitcoin is entering an early bull market structure. His greater emphasis on investor activity and liquidity than short-term price swings also supports that view.

Another analyst, Ansem, said the crypto market is entering a major growth phase. He forecast this cycle could become the biggest bull market so far and advised investors to maintain a long-term perspective and diversify assets. He said stablecoins, tokenised assets and the spread of blockchain-based financial systems could drive on-chain economic growth. He added that even if artificial intelligence (AI) does not rapidly change the economy, an increase in on-chain movement of funds could benefit the blockchain ecosystem.

There was also an outlook based on technical indicators. CryptoGuss pointed to bitcoin's MVRV momentum oscillator moving back above the zero line. He said similar moves appeared in 2012, 2016, 2019 and 2023 and were followed by major expansions in the bitcoin market, and added that bitcoin may be nearing entry into an expansion phase.

U.S. Congress also made progress on legislation related to a strategic bitcoin reserve. While the Senate failed to advance the Clarity Act, 2 committees in the House moved a bitcoin reserve bill forward. AshCrypto assessed the move as a factor that offset some regulatory headwinds. He said bitcoin needs to hold $76,000 to attempt to retest the 50-week moving average, and noted that the price level could be a turning point for the market's next phase.

Ultimately, the market's focus is shifting to how far prices can hold up, rather than the size of the negative factors. If bitcoin continues to hold the $75,000 level, attention will be on whether it can keep attempting a rebound on the back of returning long-term funds, despite regulatory uncertainty and tightening factors.

I put the probability the bottom is in at 90%. We are in an early bull market structure based on long term investor liquidity returning.