Strive CEO Matt Cole (맷 콜) laid out a medium- to long-term bullish outlook for bitcoin, citing efforts to suppress long-term U.S. Treasury yields and the possibility of a weaker dollar.

On Sept. 15, blockchain outlet Bitcoin Magazine reported that Cole said in an interview he sees a scenario in which bitcoin could generate an annual return of about 50 percent through 2030. He said policy responses aimed at keeping long-term rates low could lead to a decline in the dollar’s value, stimulating demand for scarce assets such as bitcoin.

Cole said key variables underpinning his outlook are the dollar’s value, long-term Treasury yields and bitcoin’s competitiveness versus gold. He said he expects the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department to ultimately intervene to suppress long-term Treasury yields. In that case, he said, the dollar’s value could adjust instead of interest rates, absorbing the shock from policy intervention.

In that scenario, not only nominal bond returns but also changes in the dollar’s purchasing power become important criteria for investment decisions. Cole said if dollar weakness persists while long-term rates are held down, scarce assets could become more attractive as a way to prepare for a decline in currency value.

He also focused on the possibility that bitcoin could respond more sharply than gold in the process. He argued that in a phase when demand shifts to scarce assets such as gold, bitcoin could post larger gains. That view is also based on the idea that bitcoin could be re-evaluated as a store of value that competes with gold.

The outlook focuses on shifts in the macroeconomic environment rather than short-term bitcoin price moves. Cole said the way long-term rates and the dollar move together could affect the prices of scarce assets. He said bitcoin’s medium- to long-term upside also depends on whether yield-suppression policies are implemented and the resulting changes in currency value.

It reflects a view of bitcoin as an asset that responds to declines in currency value. If investment demand that prioritises scarcity expands amid dollar weakness, bitcoin could draw attention alongside gold as an alternative store of value.

However, the projected annual return of about 50 percent is based on Cole’s personal macroeconomic scenario. The premise could change depending on whether the Fed and the Treasury actually move to suppress long-term rates and whether the dollar’s value falls in the process. Whether dollar weakness leads to increased demand for bitcoin is also a variable that will determine whether the outlook materialises.