An analysis says the likelihood is rising that the market could turn bullish as bitcoin short-term holders (STH) keep gains for about 30 days.

Cointelegraph reported on Sept. 15 that on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant presented the trend as one of the key signals needed for a long-term uptrend to return in this cycle.

CryptoQuant data show some bitcoin short-term holders have stayed in profit since Aug. 16. Short-term holders refer to wallets that have held unspent transaction output (UTXO) for less than six months. They are typically classified as closer to recent buyers and as a group that reacts more sensitively to price moves and volatility.

Short-term holders are currently split between gains and losses. As of Sept. 15, short-term holdings in profit totalled $168.2 billion, while holdings below their purchase price totalled $102.6 billion. CryptoQuant focused less on the profit-and-loss ratio itself than on the fact that short-term holders have maintained at least some holdings in profit for 30 straight days.

CryptoQuant said: "This is the first time short-term holders have remained in profit for such a long period after a market peak." It said there was a similar pattern in January, but it did not last more than a week, and in May loss-making holdings were dominant. It means that recent buyers have begun to hold on without staying in loss territory, unlike before.

The pattern also appeared during past bitcoin price recoveries. The period during which short-term holders stayed in profit lengthened near the end of the 2022 bear market. CryptoQuant said a bear-market trend needs short-term holders' profitable status to continue steadily, and for them to keep holding even during a rise, for a reversal to take hold.

Broader market profit-and-loss indicators are also showing signs of recovery. With bitcoin keeping most of its August gains, SOPR, which represents realised profit and loss for all investors, has stayed slightly above 1 after moving past the breakeven level of 1 on Aug. 19. On-chain analytics firm Checkonchain assessed that the current profit structure of short-term holders (STH) resembles the early recovery phase of a bull market.

Profit drivers also differ within the short-term holder group. Based on CryptoQuant data, the group leading the current improvement in profitability is wallets holding for 1 to 3 months. Their realised price, or average purchase price, is $63,372. By contrast, wallets holding for 3 to 6 months have a higher realised price of $73,190.

This suggests the structure in the bitcoin market is that recently arriving buyers have settled into profit first, while short-term holdings that have been held for relatively longer are still stuck at higher price levels. The next focus is expected to be whether this profit zone continues without a break and whether short-term holders actually keep holding to support an upward trend.