A forecast said that, starting with Apple's first foldable iPhone Duo, most iPhones could switch to foldables within the next 10 years. [Photo: Apple]

Apple's foldable strategy may not end with its first product, the iPhone Duo. A forecast said it could expand to the broader core iPhone lineup within the next 10 years.

On Sept. 14 (local time), IT outlet 9to5Mac reported that Bloomberg reporter Mark Gurman (마크 거먼) wrote in his latest newsletter that most iPhones could shift to a foldable form factor within the next 10 years.

The key is that a foldable iPhone may not remain an expensive, experimental product. Gurman said Apple could expand its foldable lineup up and down the price range, assuming manufacturing costs fall. He mentioned the possibility of an iPhone Duo Max with a larger screen and a higher price, and forecast that the budget iPhone SE could also join the foldable lineup over the longer term.

The forecast dovetails with expectations that Apple's entry could drive a full-scale expansion of the foldable smartphone market. Foldable smartphones currently account for about 2 percent of the overall smartphone market. Counterpoint Research expected global foldable smartphone shipments to rise 37 percent in 2027 from a year earlier, helped by Apple's entry and expanding demand for Samsung and Huawei products.

Apple's influence is also expected to be significant. Counterpoint Research expected Apple to take 25 percent of the global foldable smartphone market in 2026, when it launches its first foldable iPhone, ranking second behind Samsung. It forecast the share would rise to 40 percent in 2027 as a full year of Apple sales is reflected.

Gurman's forecast focuses on the possibility of expanding the foldable iPhone lineup. It said the iPhone Duo could be the starting point of the foldable strategy, and that as manufacturing costs fall over the longer term, foldables now concentrated in premium products could broaden across a wider range of prices.

Technical challenges remain. 9to5Mac cited the next step as embedding Face ID into the device. It said this could be technically easier than placing the selfie camera under the internal display, but noted that fitting the Face ID components needed for the external screen without increasing device thickness could be a challenge.

Foldable smartphones still cost more than conventional bar-type smartphones, meaning it will take time for them to become mainstream. Counterpoint Research also forecast that foldable devices, priced at about three times the level of regular smartphones, would take several more years to spread into the mass market.

That leaves a key question: whether Apple will limit foldables to a single premium model or subdivide the lineup by screen size and price range. With the iPhone SE also being mentioned as a foldable candidate, attention is on whether foldables can move beyond differentiating a handful of expensive models and become a major iPhone form factor.

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#Apple #iPhone Duo #Mark Gurman #Counterpoint Research #Samsung
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