Apple's first foldable smartphone, the iPhone Duo, is expected to account for about a quarter of the global foldable smartphone market in its first year on sale.

Trendforce said on Sept. 10 that iPhone Duo shipments in 2026 are expected to total about 5 million units. It is forecast to take 24.8 percent market share and rank in the No. 2 tier behind Samsung. Samsung is expected to ship about 7.1 million units and keep the lead with 35.1 percent. Huawei is also estimated to post about 5 million units and 24.8 percent. By the numbers, Apple and Huawei are effectively tied for second place.

Global foldable smartphone shipments this year are expected to rise 0.5 percent from a year earlier to about 20.2 million units. However, shipments by Android brands excluding Apple are forecast to fall more than 20 percent to about 15.2 million units. Rising component prices, including memory and displays, were cited as a key reason. Trendforce analyzed this as a structure in which Apple's entry offsets declines by existing players, barely allowing the overall market to grow.

The iPhone Duo, unveiled by Apple on Sept. 9, folds inward like a book. It uses a 7.6-inch display when unfolded and a 5.4-inch display when folded. It includes an A20 Pro chip and Apple's in-house C2 cellular modem.

Competition in the foldable market is also shifting from screen size to thickness and weight, minimizing creases and durability. The iPhone Duo applies a 10-layer laminated structure to its inner display, and Apple said it used a custom polymer with up to 40 percent higher stiffness than common industry materials and a structure in which layers slide against each other during folding to reduce bending stress.

Trendforce called 2026 a period of structural reorganization in the foldable market. It expects limited market growth this year, but forecasts shipments will rise again by 16.3 percent in 2027. It is also being watched whether Apple's entry will spur product improvements and cost reductions by Samsung and Chinese manufacturers.