[Digital Today reporter Jinju Hong (홍진주)] XRP has rebounded against bitcoin in August, but past monthly patterns suggest it could rise further in September before facing another pullback in October.

Decrypto, a blockchain media outlet, reported on Sept. 3 that market analyst Egrag Crypto said XRP/BTC has shown clear seasonality as the year-end approaches.

XRP/BTC is trading at 0.00001754. That is 48 percent below its January 2025 peak of 0.00003415. XRP briefly showed stronger momentum than bitcoin during a market rebound two weeks ago, but later slipped back and has remained relatively weak over the past two weeks.

Egrag Crypto focused in particular on moves in September and October. Based on historical monthly averages, XRP rose 17.0 percent in September and fell an average 19.6 percent in October. It then reversed. The average gain was 30.5 percent in November and 44.1 percent in December.

Egrag Crypto said the sequence of moves matters more than simple averages. He described past patterns as a "rotation" in September, a "shakeout" in October, an "expansion" in November and "additional acceleration" in December. If the pattern repeats this year, XRP could rebound against bitcoin in September and then face renewed weakness in October.

October has often been a period when XRP is weak against bitcoin. XRP/BTC has ended lower in 11 of the past 13 Octobers. That means it is a stretch investors should watch in the short term.

Still, an October decline has not immediately led to long-term weakness. In the past, sharp October drops have been followed by strong rebounds in November. In October 2020, XRP/BTC fell 22.4 percent, but surged 93.8 percent the following month. In 2024, it fell 24.9 percent in October and then rose 179.2 percent in November.

Those records show it is hard to dismiss the possibility of XRP relative strength toward year-end based on an October pullback alone. Egrag Crypto also said an October adjustment could be part of a larger rotation, after which XRP could regain an edge over bitcoin.

Looking only at the year-to-date trend, XRP's relative weakness has been clear. XRP/BTC fell 0.5 percent in January and slipped 1.8 percent in February. It dropped 4.4 percent in March and the decline widened to 8.8 percent in April. It rebounded 1.0 percent in May, but did not last. It fell 2.0 percent in June and 4.8 percent in July, and only in August did it rise about 4.0 percent to catch its breath.

The market's next focus is whether August's 4 percent rise will remain a short-term rebound or mark the start of a bigger shift. Egrag Crypto said breaking above the August high could be an important signal. If it clears that level, the recovery could extend into September, but October could bring resistance and a pullback similar to the past, he said.

Ultimately, the key is whether the August rebound becomes the starting point for a year-end pattern. There is no guarantee past moves will repeat in 2026, but XRP's year-long underperformance versus bitcoin and its recent rebound remain clues to gauge direction after September.