After Tesla shares tumbled, short-selling investors posted about $9 billion in mark-to-market gains, an analysis showed. But the figure does not reflect short sellers’ real-time profit or loss as of August, as it was compiled shortly after the sharp drop in July.

On Aug. 17 local time, blockchain outlet Decrypt reported that financial data firm S3 Partners put year-to-date mark-to-market gains on Tesla short positions at $9.008 billion after the stock slid 14.5 percent in a single day on July 23.

The one-day drop generated about $4.3 billion in book profits for Tesla short positions at the time. About 3 percent of Tesla’s free float was sold short, the highest short-interest ratio among the Magnificent 7, the analysis showed. But it is difficult to view $9.008 billion as profits that short sellers currently have secured. The figure reflects mark-to-market profit and loss calculated as of immediately after the July 23 plunge.

Tesla shares closed at $319.69 that day and continued to fall to $298.32 on July 29. They later rebounded to about $339.20 on Aug. 17.

If short sellers kept their positions after the July plunge, additional declines into late July could have increased gains, but the subsequent rebound may have given back some profits. Calculating the group’s exact aggregate profit or loss requires the latest data reflecting shares sold short, entry prices, closing activity and new positions.

Based only on Tesla’s year-to-date share-price movement, conditions still favor short sellers. The stock fell about 24.6 percent to about $339.20 on Aug. 17 from a Dec. 31 close of $449.72. But a year-to-date decline does not mean all short sellers made money, because entry and exit timing differs by investor.

The direct trigger for the slide was second-quarter results. Tesla posted adjusted earnings per share of $0.33, well below the company-compiled average analyst estimate of $0.55. Revenue came in at $28.24 billion, above the market estimate of $27.58 billion, but operating profit under U.S. accounting standards fell 57 percent from a year earlier to $398 million. The operating margin also slipped to 1.4 percent.

Cash flow also came under pressure. Tesla’s second-quarter operating cash flow was $4.7 billion, but capital expenditures surged to $5.79 billion, leaving free cash flow at a deficit of about $1.09 billion.

Tesla is investing large sums in long-term projects including AI infrastructure, autonomous driving, the Optimus humanoid robot and expanded production capacity. Market attention is focused on whether such spending can translate into actual revenue and profit growth.

High valuation is also cited as a burden on Tesla shares. Despite this year’s decline, Tesla’s price-to-earnings ratio based on the latest 12 months of results is above 300. Forward P/E is lower, but remains high compared with traditional automakers and major large-cap tech stocks.

Tesla’s share price currently reflects not only its electric-vehicle business but also expectations for future businesses such as autonomous driving, robotaxis, AI and humanoid robots. If commercialization or monetization takes longer than expected, share-price volatility could increase.

In the cryptocurrency market, Binance’s tokenized Tesla stock bStock, TSLAB, also tracked Tesla’s share-price moves. TSLAB traded at about $339.30 as of the time of reporting, down about 1 percent over 24 hours. Trading volume was close to $928,000.

TSLAB is designed to provide eligible users with economic exposure to Tesla shares in token form, but it trades on a separate order book from TSLA on Nasdaq. As a result, prices and moves for the two assets can temporarily diverge due to differences in liquidity and quotes, trading hours and how 24-hour returns are calculated.

The key is the calculation date, rather than the $9.008 billion figure itself. It represents mark-to-market gains immediately after Tesla’s July 23 plunge and does not mean the group’s aggregate profit or loss as of August. That leaves one point for market participants to watch, whether in Tesla shares or TSLAB: whether Tesla can turn the large sums invested in AI, autonomous driving, robots and production facilities into higher profitability and stable cash flow.