Morgan Stanley kept its official price target on SpaceX at $300, while laying out a scenario in which it could value the company as high as $600 in the most optimistic case.

Decrypted, a blockchain media outlet, reported on Aug. 11 that this is not an official target price but a bull-case scenario premised on stronger execution across its AI business, Starship, orbital computing and new businesses overall.

SpaceX shares were trading around $139 at the time. Based on that, Morgan Stanley’s $300 target implies about 116 percent upside. The $600 scenario would require a gain of about 332 percent. Morgan Stanley divided its valuation range into a $75 bear case, a $300 base case and a $600 bull case.

Central to the valuation is SpaceX’s acquisition of Anysphere, which operates the AI coding platform Cursor. SpaceX exercised an option in June to acquire Anysphere. The consideration will be paid in SpaceX Class A shares, calculated based on an implied equity value of $60 billion. A quarterly report SpaceX filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission showed the deal is expected to be completed in the third quarter of 2026, subject to closing conditions including regulatory approvals.

Morgan Stanley forecast Cursor’s annual recurring revenue will reach $8 billion by the end of 2026 and about $33 billion in 2030. It also expected Cursor’s gross margin to turn profitable in the third quarter and rise to the low 60 percent range by 2030. At the current share price of $139, the market values SpaceX’s AI business at about $12 a share, which Morgan Stanley judged to be low compared with listed AI infrastructure companies.

AI is also taking up a rapidly growing share of results. SpaceX’s second-quarter revenue rose 92 percent from a year earlier to $7.81 billion. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation increased 191 percent to $3.54 billion, and its net loss narrowed to $541 million from about $1 billion. AI segment revenue jumped 247 percent to $2.56 billion from $737 million a year earlier. SpaceX also said it had secured $14.1 billion in cloud services contract revenue.

Still, expanding AI continues to require large capital outlays. AI accounted for about 86 percent of total quarterly capital expenditure of $18.37 billion. Morgan Stanley said its bear-case scenario assumes AI monetisation and deployment slow and the Starship programme could also be delayed. The $600 bull case assumes investment in AI infrastructure, Cursor, Starship and orbital computing is successfully translated into long-term revenue and cash flow.

In the market, the $600 figure is seen less as an official target price than as a possible upper bound for long-term value. Morgan Stanley also drew a line, saying the official target remains $300. It said $600 is not an expected share price but a range reflecting valuation uncertainty in businesses under development.

It also said the valuation applies to SpaceX’s Nasdaq-listed shares. SPCXB, a tokenised asset, is designed to provide economic exposure to the underlying shares, but it trades in a separate order book on Binance, which can create a temporary divergence from the underlying share price due to differences in liquidity, demand and trading hours. As a result, the $600 scenario should be viewed as a long-term value possibility for SpaceX shares rather than a direct price outlook for SPCXB.