An analysis says XRP may have entered the final stage of a long-term bearish cycle. The reasoning is that monthly technical patterns seen at past major lows are appearing again.

According to blockchain media outlet Decrypt on Tuesday local time, XRP closed its July monthly candle below the 50-period moving average on the monthly chart (1M MA50). It was the first time since June 2024 that XRP posted two consecutive monthly closes below the 1M MA50.

Analysts focused on the signal, saying it resembles past long-term bottoming processes rather than a simple bearish move. In 2024, XRP shifted to a strong upward cycle after a prolonged accumulation phase.

XRP’s current monthly structure is also seen as similar to the 2021 to 2022 bear market. At the time, XRP fell below the 1M MA50 and entered the final stage of a long-term downward channel, then formed a bottom and rebounded. If a similar pattern repeats, some expect the next major support to be around the 1M MA100.

Some analyses also suggest the final bottom could form at lower levels. Based on a long-term Fibonacci rising channel and the monthly relative strength index (RSI), the analysis says XRP could begin a full recovery after an additional correction. The 1M RSI is again approaching the “Lower Lows” trendline that showed a strong buy signal at past long-term bottoms.

In 2020 and 2022, XRP also offered long-term buying opportunities in that area. In 2022, the RSI did not touch the trendline directly, but a buying zone formed near the lows after sideways movement. If a similar trend continues, additional correction or consolidation could appear over the next 3 to 4 months.

A projected final bottom range was put at $0.80 to $0.65. The band reflects the 1M MA100 and 1M MA150 levels as well as a long-term Fibonacci retracement zone. The analysis says the area around $0.65 is close to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level and overlaps with a past support zone.

XRP also formed a bottom around a similar Fibonacci zone at its June 2022 low. The analysis says a retest of the area could act as a buying zone for long-term investors.

Still, XRP needs to break through long-term resistance to turn back into an uptrend. XRP is currently capped by the “Higher Highs” trendline, and it is difficult to judge a full bullish reversal until it clears that resistance, the analysis says.

If XRP succeeds in breaking long-term resistance, another bullish cycle could begin, another projection says. An analyst said XRP could sustain a long uptrend similar to the period after 2022, and cited about $6 as an initial bullish target.

Overall, the XRP market is seen as an area where the risk of further declines and long-term buying opportunities coexist. In the short term, support at $0.65 to $0.80 is key, and in the long term, whether it breaks above the main resistance is expected to determine the direction of the next cycle.