As the U.S. Senate delayed a procedural vote on the CLARITY Act, a crypto market structure bill, prediction market participants began to assign lower odds to its enactment this year.

The Defiant, a blockchain media outlet, reported on Aug. 5 that betting prices fell after Senate Republican leader John Thune declined on Aug. 4 to file a cloture motion on a motion to proceed with the bill.

Prediction markets reacted first. On Kalshi, the contract asking whether the CLARITY Act will be enacted by Jan. 1, 2027 dropped to 22 cents from 30 cents. On Polymarket, a contract with the same condition fell to 15.5 cents. That was down 8.5 percentage points from a day earlier, 12 percentage points from a week earlier and 32.5 percentage points from a month earlier. Total volume in the market was tallied at $4.76 million, with $896,780 traded over the past 24 hours.

The market appears to be placing more weight on a delay in enactment than on the bill failing. On Kalshi, a contract for enactment by Sept. 1, 2026 fell to 2 cents from 4 cents, and a contract for enactment by July 2027 slipped to 43 cents from 49 cents. By contrast, a contract for enactment by October 2027 rose to 58 cents from 55 cents, and a contract for enactment by January 2028 edged up to 65 cents from 64 cents. That reflects a higher perceived chance of passage in the second half of 2027 or later than enactment this year.

Kalshi contracts are settled on a cumulative basis depending on whether the bill has been enacted by each deadline. Applying the difference between the 22-cent price for enactment before January 2027 and the 65-cent price for enactment before January 2028 implies the market is pricing the chance of enactment in 2027 at about 43 percent. That is about double the 22 percent chance of enactment during the remainder of this year.

Thune told reporters on the day that he still wants a procedural vote on the CLARITY Act after first filing cloture motions on a college sports bill and the nomination of Todd Blanche. Punchbowl News reported he said, "We are adjusting the order, but there are still items I want to handle," and added, "I will watch the level of interest over the next few days."

Possible reasons cited for the delay included vote-counting in the Senate and a lack of bipartisan agreement. Eleanor Terrett said on Aug. 4 that the decision not to file cloture was due to a procedural issue tied to an ongoing continuing resolution. She said it was also likely influenced by a failure to secure enough votes and by unresolved key issues. She said the filing of cloture on the college sports bill on Aug. 5 was a sign there is still no bipartisan agreement on the CLARITY Act. In the Senate, a vote is scheduled 30 hours after a cloture motion is filed.

Market participants reacted sharply to procedural variables because settlement conditions are strict. Kalshi has already settled the contract for enactment before Aug. 1, 2026 as a "No" on Aug. 1. In this series, only laws that have passed Congress and been signed are eligible for settlement. Executive orders, regulatory guidance, agency rules, a standalone stablecoin bill and bills that pass only one chamber do not qualify.

The CLARITY Act passed the House last year and has advanced to the Senate floor stage. To overcome a filibuster, it still needs at least 7 additional votes from Democrats. In that situation, the cloture delay is being taken as an event that again shows scheduling adjustments and difficulties in securing votes in the Senate rather than the bill being scrapped. For now, market attention is expected to focus on whether Thune will reschedule the procedural vote and whether he can secure Democratic cooperation.