[DigitalToday reporter Yoonseo Lee (이윤서)] XRP’s realised volatility on Binance has fallen to its lowest level in three months, and the market is watching for the next price direction.

U.Today, a blockchain media outlet, reported on Aug. 5 local time that XRP’s 30-day realised volatility fell to about 0.34 on the day.

XRP has shown mixed moves near the $1 level while maintaining a relatively stable price range. Compared with June, when volatility widened sharply, daily price swings have noticeably narrowed. That has led to assessments that it has entered one of the quietest stretches in recent months.

Realised volatility is an indicator of how much an asset’s price actually moves over a given period. A lower reading can be interpreted as short-term buying and selling remaining balanced rather than leaning strongly to either side. The market sees it as a sign that XRP has entered a pause.

Still, low volatility alone does not allow a forecast of the next direction. There have been cases in the past where volatility shrank, sideways trading followed and then a large move emerged, but it does not show whether it will be up or down.

At current levels, whether it holds the $1 line is seen as a key variable that will determine the near-term trend. If XRP defends that level and recovers trading volume, the chance of an upside breakout could increase. If support breaks, it is also hard to rule out the possibility that an expansion in volatility appears in a downward move.

Seasonality is cited as a factor limiting expectations of gains. XRP has often posted weak returns in August in the past, and if a similar pattern repeats, the near-term recovery could weaken. Seasonality is only a tendency based on past statistics and is not an absolute criterion for this year’s price direction. A different path is also possible depending on trading volume, investor sentiment, market liquidity and XRP-related issues.

In the current XRP market, signals are being detected at the same time of a big move that could follow the volatility contraction and of August weakness. Whether XRP holds the $1 line and extends its sideways trade, or attempts a breakout with a clear direction, will be the point to watch.