Prospects that the Clarity cryptocurrency market-structure bill will pass this year have fallen sharply in the United States.

CryptoSlate, a blockchain media outlet, reported on Aug. 4 that Polymarket put the chances of the Clarity bill passing in 2026 at 27 percent as of July 29.

Rising market concern comes as key figures in U.S. government and congressional crypto policy step down in succession. Tyler Williams, the senior adviser on blockchain and digital asset policy to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, stepped down on July 31 and returned to the private sector. He coordinated stablecoin implementation, banking guidance and the alignment of rules on illicit finance within the Treasury Department.

Earlier, Harry Jung said on July 20 that he would leave the White House cryptocurrency committee within 2 weeks. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's cryptocurrency task force led by Hester Peirce is also expected to change this year. Peirce plans to leave the agency at the end of this year. Cynthia Lummis, who chairs the Senate Banking Committee's digital assets subcommittee, has already said she will leave the Senate when her term ends in January 2027.

The 4 figures have each helped design the U.S. crypto regulatory framework from different positions. Williams coordinated working-level tasks at the Treasury, while Jung served as a link between the White House, Congress and agencies. Peirce's task force has worked inside the SEC on drafts for token classification and registration methods. Lummis has taken part in drafting the market-structure bill and negotiating its passage through a Senate committee.

The problem is that the rules they have pursued are not yet completed as law. The Clarity bill passed the Senate Banking Committee by 15 to 9, but a full Senate vote and securing 60 votes to block a filibuster remain. The House of Representatives already passed its own bill, H.R. 3633, in July 2025 by 294 to 134, but controversy over ethics provisions, opposition from banks and the Senate schedule ahead of midterm elections remain obstacles to final legislation.

The core of the Clarity bill is to clearly draw the boundary of authority between the SEC and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. If the bill passes, the CFTC would oversee spot markets for digital commodities, while the SEC would continue to supervise assets with the nature of securities and investment contracts. That boundary determines which exchanges can list specific tokens, what disclosures projects must make to investors, and which regulator is responsible when platform problems arise.

The Senate version also includes registration rules for digital commodity exchanges, brokers and dealers. Disclosure, conflicts of interest, financial soundness, cybersecurity and customer asset protection are all included. Without a law, platforms must keep making listing, custody and product decisions based not on congressional legislation but on agency interpretations and enforcement approaches and shifts in state rules.

Even so, a pro-industry stance in Washington has not immediately reversed. Paul Atkins is serving as SEC chair and Mark Uyeda remains a commissioner. Patrick Witt, executive director of the White House cryptocurrency committee, said he stayed in his post and even postponed military training to negotiate the Clarity bill. Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott and Bill Hagerty are also continuing to push for the bill's passage.

Money flows outside politics are also continuing. Crypto industry stakeholders have put about $200 million into the 2026 midterm election cycle. That is up from about $170 million in 2024. Even so, betting markets are moving more conservatively than political calculations. The odds of Clarity passing fell from a peak of 82 percent in February to 32 percent in mid-July, and slid to 27 percent on July 29.

A future variable is whether the Senate can resolve ethics provisions and opposition from banks in the time remaining before recess. If a deal is reached, successors would take over an already prepared legal framework, and market-structure regulation could secure continuity like the GENIUS Act, which set stablecoin rules. If Senate delays overlap with personnel gaps, the classification, registration and disclosure rules investors need will continue to rely on agency memos and enforcement judgments rather than statute.

Ultimately, the timing of completion has remained a bigger uncertainty than the direction of U.S. cryptocurrency regulation. As key figures who have refined the regulatory system leave their posts, the market's next focus is when Congress can turn Clarity into standing rules.