Texas has put on hold the approval process for new data centres seeking to connect to the power grid, but existing electricity contracts held by bitcoin miners operating in the state are unlikely to face a major impact, a forecast said.

The Texas Tribune, cited by blockchain outlet Cointelegraph on Aug. 4, reported that investment bank Bernstein saw limited direct fallout because many major miners in Texas have contracts based on power capacity that has already been approved.

The move follows an order by Texas Governor Greg Abbott on Aug. 3 directing the Public Utility Commission of Texas and the Electric Reliability Council of Texas to audit all data centres that have applied to connect to the grid. The audit period was not disclosed. Data centre construction has been rising rapidly, increasing strain on the grid and fueling local backlash.

Bernstein said a pipeline of data centres awaiting development could be hit harder than existing miners. The research team said the audit would shrink a speculative data centre pipeline and raise the value of real sites with development track records. It added that bitcoin mining sites have long development periods, self-procure infrastructure and have experience managing local communities.

That has also led to forecasts that sites that have already secured grid approval could become even scarcer. Bernstein said that if opposition to new data centre projects grows and new power-capacity supply is constrained by the pause and state directives, the value of approved megawatt capacity will rise.

By company, it said the Texas operations of Cipher Digital, Core Scientific and CleanSpark could be relatively more exposed to future opposition to data centre expansion. That means greater burdens could emerge in converting development assets into grid-connected power capacity, especially in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas approval process.

In contrast, the Texas mining operations of Iren and Riot Platforms were classified as already having grid approval. If new expansions are blocked, operators holding already approved assets could end up in a relatively advantageous position.

Market reaction was mixed. Cipher Digital shares fell more than 7 percent in premarket trading on Aug. 4, according to Yahoo Finance data. The company also reported second-quarter results that day, with a diluted net loss per share of $0.65. That widened from a loss of $0.12 in the same period a year earlier.

The move is drawing attention because it suggests Texas is again putting grid screening and local acceptance to the fore after a period of actively courting data centres and mining facilities. While the immediate impact on miners operating under existing contracts is limited, data centre and mining projects seeking new power capacity in Texas may become more sensitive to two variables: the approval process and local backlash.