Bitcoin has not yet hit bottom and could fall about 30 percent from current levels to as low as $43,500, an outlook said.

Cointelegraph reported on Aug. 4 local time that Transform Ventures founder Michael Turpin (마이클 터핀) said bitcoin could drop to a level 66 percent below its October 2025 record high of $126,100.

Turpin said bitcoin has already given up about half of its market capitalisation, but the market has not yet confirmed a true low. He cited the lack of an immediate rebound as a typical feature of a bottom and said he believes no genuine capitulation selling has emerged yet.

He said investor greed makes it difficult to respond to market cycles. He said that after bitcoin rose to about $69,000 in November 2021 and entered a prolonged correction, there was enough time to exit above $60,000, but the market clung to expectations for $100,000. Turpin said bitcoin could have reached $100,000 at the time, but he viewed a reasonable range as about $85,000.

Turpin said the past two cycles both coincided with poor macro conditions. He said he expected a favourable environment under the Trump administration, but tariffs and other factors made market manipulation possible. Bitcoin hit $100,000 on Dec. 2024, one month after Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election.

He said bitcoin still follows the traditional four-year cycle even after institutional inflows and the launch of spot exchange-traded funds. He rejected claims that bitcoin will now keep rising because institutions do not sell, saying institutions clearly do sell.

Turpin mentioned Strategy and Michael Saylor's aggressive bitcoin accumulation strategy. He said investors need to understand that investing in a corporate structure is different from holding the underlying asset directly. He said he would bet on bitcoin itself rather than a single company.

Turpin is an early cryptocurrency investor and has worked with early projects such as Ethereum, Tether and WAX through Transform Ventures. He advised Mastercoin, the first public token sale in 2013, and later moved to Puerto Rico, where he also took part in local startup investment and funding support.