[DigitalToday reporter Jinju Hong (홍진주)] XRP closed July at $1.06, drawing market attention to whether it can snap an August downtrend that has persisted for 4 consecutive years.

Blockchain outlet U.Today reported on Friday that after a long decline, XRP is entering August in a phase that tests the possibility of breaking above the top of a falling channel.

The key is not seasonality but the current price level and the third-quarter trend. XRP has ended every August lower since 2021. CryptoRank statistics show the past 4 Augusts all ended with negative monthly candles, making the last month of summer a recurring loss period.

Still, August is not historically XRP’s worst month. XRP’s average August return is calculated at 0.43 percent. That is a smaller drop than June’s minus 6.40 percent and February’s minus 6.14 percent. The issue is the consecutive weakness over the past 4 years rather than the average. Markets are focusing more on whether XRP can end the pattern of four straight negative August closes this time.

Looking only at the annual trend, performance in the first half was weak. The 2026 first-quarter return was minus 27.1 percent and the second quarter was minus 22.4 percent. June alone fell minus 22.1 percent, deepening weakness ahead of the second half. But the trend changed in the third quarter. July ended up 1.91 percent, turning the third-quarter return to a positive 2.10 percent.

Quarterly statistics also point in XRP’s favour. The third quarter has been XRP’s strongest period as a recovery phase, with an average return of 17 percent and a median of 25.8 percent. Overall third-quarter performance for the past 4 years has also remained positive. Even if there is a temporary pullback in August, the full quarter has held up.

Technical signals are also in focus. On the daily chart, XRP has moved inside a broad falling wedge for more than a year, with upper resistance currently formed in the $1.20 to $1.25 range. The report cited this zone as a “key resistance line” and said a breakout above it could lead to a full-fledged rally.

On the downside, the $1.05 to $1.06 area was cited as a short-term support zone. With the current price compressed near that support line, an interpretation is emerging that a directional choice is close. If August ends even above the opening level, XRP can break its four-year streak of August declines.

This month is expected to be a watershed for XRP. It will determine whether August remains a weak period again or becomes part of the broader third-quarter upswing. With the price near strong support and the third-quarter return already back in positive territory, XRP is facing its strongest opportunity in 5 years to reverse its downtrend.