Shiba Inu (SHIB) holdings on centralised exchanges are increasingly likely to fall below $400 million in dollar terms. The decline is seen as driven mainly by a drop in SHIB’s price rather than large-scale investor withdrawals of tokens.

On July 29 local time, blockchain outlet U.Today reported that SHIB holdings on centralised exchanges were tallied at about $414.8 million. If the price falls further from current levels, the value of holdings could drop below $400 million.

In general, a drop in exchange holdings is interpreted as a bullish signal as investors move tokens to personal wallets, reducing selling pressure. This time, the analysis said, the dollar value of holdings fell because token prices declined, not because the amount of SHIB held by exchanges dropped sharply.

Price action also supports that view. SHIB recently tried to rebound as trading volume surged, but it failed to break major resistance and turned weak again. It is trading at about $0.0000048 and moving near the 20-day and 50-day exponential moving averages.

In the short term, the 100-day exponential moving average near $0.0000050 is seen as key resistance. In the market, the prevailing view is that the recent rise is a short-term relief rally rather than a trend reversal until that level is broken. The 200-day exponential moving average, a long-term resistance level, is around $0.0000060, and the assessment is that additional buying is needed for a full shift to an uptrend.

Technical indicators also reinforce caution. The relative strength index rose into overbought territory during the rebound, but it quickly cooled as buying weakened afterward. Momentum has improved from earlier this month, but the analysis said the strong upward force seen in the initial rebound has not been sustained.

On-chain activity, by contrast, appears relatively stable. Active addresses, new receiving addresses and the number of transactions all showed slight increases. That suggests the decline in exchange-held value is being driven more by the impact of SHIB’s price drop than by reduced investor participation.

The market views that if SHIB falls further from current levels, exchange-held value could soon drop below $400 million. If it regains the 100-day exponential moving average, the dollar value of holdings could rise quickly even without a major change in the amount of SHIB held on exchanges.

Ultimately, the decline in exchange-held value is being interpreted as an indicator reflecting weakness in Shiba Inu’s market value rather than an investor exodus, and future price moves are seen as the key variable that will determine the direction of exchange-held value.