[DigitalToday reporter Jinju Hong (홍진주)] XRP is extending its weakness as a delay in the U.S. Senate’s handling of the CLARITY bill coincides with caution ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision. The market cites the Fed’s rate stance as a short-term driver and the fate of the CLARITY bill as a medium- to long-term variable that will determine XRP’s direction.

On July 28 (local time), blockchain media outlet Decrypt reported that XRP was trading around $1.06, down about 8 percent over the past week.

Market pressure has come from regulation and macroeconomic factors at the same time. The U.S. Senate has officially put CLARITY bill discussions on hold to prioritise a Russia sanctions bill and federal appointments. With the Senate’s summer recess starting on Aug. 7, the window for passing the bill has narrowed further, and some outlooks say that if there is no vote before the recess, the next opportunity could slip to 2027.

The CLARITY bill has direct implications for XRP. It includes provisions to establish a legal basis to classify XRP as a commodity, which could become a foundation for institutional investors, custodians, banks and spot ETF issuers to design related products. Standard Chartered’s $8 target for XRP is also a scenario premised on the Senate passing the bill and spot ETF inflows of $4 billion to $8 billion.

Expectations had appeared to be picking up until early this month. On July 21, when news was reported that U.S. President Donald Trump had agreed to an ethics provision in the CLARITY bill, XRP rose 3.25 percent to as high as $1.1485, and Polymarket’s implied probability of Senate passage also climbed at one point to 43 percent. As the Senate schedule was pushed back, those expectations quickly cooled.

The macro environment is also not supportive. The market sees a high chance of the Federal Open Market Committee keeping its benchmark rate unchanged, but concerns are emerging that if the Fed maintains a hawkish stance, additional selling pressure could continue across risk assets.

Bitcoin has been moving in the $63,000 range and remains well below its June high of $80,000. Selling has also continued in the altcoin market, and XRP is being affected as well.

Technical indicators also still favour bears. XRP’s market capitalisation is about $65 billion, and its 24-hour trading range moved between $1.0450 and $1.0679. XRP has remained in a downward channel of lower highs and lower lows since the peak near $3.40 recorded last year.

The average directional index (ADX), which indicates trend strength, was 11.2. Generally, an ADX of 20 to 25 or lower is interpreted as indicating no clear trend, and XRP is assessed to be in a phase where a directionless bearish 흐름 is continuing. Still, directional indicators also showed signs that bearish pressure is easing somewhat.

Moving averages, which show the medium-term trend, are also a burden. A "death cross" has persisted, with the 50-day moving average below the 200-day moving average, and the relative strength index (RSI) is 40.9, below the neutral line of 50. It is not at oversold levels, but buying interest is also not strong.

The market views the Fed’s remarks as a short-term inflection point. If it holds rates while sending dovish signals or hints at the possibility of a September rate cut, XRP could retest resistance at $1.10 to $1.12. If a hawkish message emerges, the market is also raising the possibility of further declines to $1.01 and even $0.97.

The market sees the Fed’s monetary policy as the key short-term catalyst and the fate of the CLARITY bill as the key medium- to long-term catalyst for XRP. Still, with an ADX at low levels, a death cross and weak momentum persisting at the same time as they are now, the prevailing analysis is that even if a short-term rebound appears, it is too early to interpret it as the start of a new uptrend.