[Digital Today intern reporter Seungah Yoo] Worries are growing about overheating around the U.S. stock market's artificial intelligence rally, but Jim Cramer (짐 크레이머) argued the current market is different from the period just before the dotcom bubble burst.
On July 14 (local time), economic media outlet CNBC reported that Cramer said that despite a surge in AI-related shares, the market structure now differs from the technology stock bubble around 2000.
He drew a line, saying some stocks may be reflecting excessive expectations but that does not explain the entire market. Cramer said, "There are always exceptional stocks," and added, "There is some overheating, but it does not represent the market we trade or the entire set of stocks we hold."
Over the past year, U.S. stocks have sustained record highs on the back of an AI investment boom. As semiconductor and AI-related shares surged, talk of an overheated market also grew. Memory chipmaker Micron has risen more than 243 percent this year, and SanDisk has climbed more than 644 percent. The sharp gains prompted comparisons with the late-1990s dotcom boom.
Cramer cited interest rates, earnings and valuations as key differences between then and now. He said the consumer price index released that day came in lower than expected, easing worries about further tightening by the U.S. Federal Reserve. He added, "A scenario like the dotcom bubble collapse is only possible if large rate hikes come one after another, and we are not in that situation yet." He also said Kevin Warsh (케빈 워시), the new Federal Reserve chair, appeared unlikely to tilt toward tightening if the current inflation level holds.
He also assessed valuation pressure as lower than in the past. Citing FactSet data, he pointed to the S&P 500 forward price-to-earnings ratio exceeding 25 before 2000, compared with about 20 now. Calling it a "big difference," Cramer said, "20 is not very cheap, but it is not as expensive a market as 2000."
He also cited earnings at major financial stocks as a factor supporting the market's resilience. He said Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan posted revenue and profit above market expectations that day, and that their forward price-to-earnings ratios are generally around 12 to 18. Referring to those stocks, Cramer asked, "They are ridiculously cheap. Is this overheating?"
He applied the same logic to technology stocks. He mentioned that SK Hynix is trading at about 4 times estimated 2027 earnings, and Micron at about 6 times. He also assessed that Nvidia, given its AI dominance, is trading at a multiple similar to the broader market.
He said what characterises the current market is not a handful of speculative stocks but the low-price appeal of many large-cap shares. Cramer said, "What represents the market now is the cheap valuation of many large-cap stocks."
The remarks came as AI-related shares continue to surge and debate grows over whether the market will move into a sharp correction like the early 2000s. Cramer made clear that, at least for now, it is hard to view the broader market as a bubble given interest rate pressure, corporate earnings and stock price levels.