An estimate says parts costs for Apple’s next flagship iPhone 18 Pro Max 1TB model could rise by up to nearly $300, or about 450,000 won, from the current generation.

A Counterpoint Research report cited by tech outlet 9to5Mac on Wednesday compared the parts cost of the iPhone 17 Pro Max 1TB with the expected component costs of the iPhone 18 Pro Max 1TB.

The main driver is rising memory prices. Counterpoint Research expected NAND prices to rise sharply due to component shortages that have had a major impact on the market since late last year. It also forecast DRAM costs could jump by a similar amount. It pointed to a 2-nanometer process system-on-chip and the latest packaging technology as major cost drivers as well.

Counterpoint Research estimated that the NAND and DRAM costs of the iPhone 18 Pro Max alone could approach the estimated cost of the current model’s NAND, DRAM, processor, camera, display and other components combined. That means cost pressure could be more pronounced for higher-capacity models as memory prices rise and the burden of shifting semiconductor processes increases at the same time.

Some components, however, are expected to become cheaper. Display and other component prices were cited as likely to fall. Camera costs were expected to rise slightly due to the adoption of new technology. Counterpoint Research said, "Camera costs will increase slightly due to new technology," referring to a variable-aperture main camera.

Apple’s pricing strategy is also drawing attention. Counterpoint Research expected Apple to apply different retail price increases by storage capacity to avoid erosion of gross profit on higher-capacity models. It projected that even if the average retail price rises by $200, or about 300,000 won, margins on this year’s model would still become thinner.

The outlook suggests Apple is more likely to manage profitability by storage tier rather than adjust prices uniformly for the next iPhone. As memory makes up a larger share of costs in higher-capacity models, the size of price increases could also vary by model.

The key question is how much of the cost increase will be reflected in actual retail prices. With memory and advanced chip costs rising together, whether Apple prioritises defending margins or limits price increases to preserve sales volume is emerging as a variable in the company’s next iPhone strategy.