[DigitalToday reporter Hong Jin-ju (홍진주)] One of the biggest interests for investors in the cryptocurrency market is when the next “bull run” will begin. A bull run is not a simple short-term rebound. It refers to a bull market in which digital asset prices rise sharply over months to years. Still, an analysis said recent market indicators are still far from the typical early stage of a bull run.

On June 1 (local time), blockchain media outlet The Crypto Basic cited the Bitcoin halving, accumulation by long-term holders, rising on-chain activity and institutional inflows as representative bull-run signals. It also diagnosed the current market as a situation in which it is difficult to be certain that a bull market is beginning.

According to the outlet, crypto bull runs usually begin after a long sideways period or a bear market. Bitcoin (BTC) generally rises first, shifting market sentiment. Funds then move to large altcoins such as Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP), Solana (SOL) and Binance Coin (BNB). Gains have then repeatedly spread to mid- and small-cap altcoins.

The Bitcoin halving was cited as a leading signal. In the past, Bitcoin has repeatedly hit new all-time highs after halvings, as reduced supply and improved sentiment combined. In particular, the April 2024 halving was unusual in that it set record highs both before and after the event. Based on past cases, The Crypto Basic explained that bull runs often begin in the latter part just before a halving and frequently last about 12 to 18 months afterward.

Still, the outlet said the current market has more warning signals than bull-market signals. Since a peak in October 2025, Bitcoin has maintained a downtrend on the weekly chart, with both highs and lows falling. The Fear and Greed Index, a gauge of crypto market sentiment, is also hovering around 31, still in the “fear” zone.

Institutional flows are also unstable. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs have posted net outflows for three straight weeks, with the outflow amount reaching several billion dollars.

By contrast, long-term holders’ moves were assessed as a positive factor. Historically, when large investors accumulated during periods of high uncertainty, it often reflected expectations of future gains. The share of supply held by long-term holders was tallied at 74.3 percent, a record high. Still, the outlet said aggressive additional buying by long-term holders has slowed somewhat in the current market.

Institutional investment was also cited as a key variable for the next bull run. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs, launched in January 2024, have posted cumulative net inflows of more than $55 billion despite recent outflows. Expanding corporate treasury adoption, participation by financial institutions and greater regulatory clarity are also seen as factors that could lift long-term demand. The outlet also mentioned the CLARITY bill, a crypto market structure bill being pursued in the U.S. Congress, as a variable that could boost market confidence.

Altcoins tend to post larger returns after Bitcoin rises, but volatility is also much higher. In the 2020 to 2021 bull market, after Bitcoin rose from about $3,880 to $65,000, altcoins posted relatively higher gains. At the time, DeFi, blockchain games and NFTs led the market, and AI, blockchain infrastructure and real-world assets (RWA) have recently emerged as new investment themes.

Still, the outlet did not pin down the timing of the next bull market. Based on past cycles, it introduced a view that a market bottom could form in the fourth quarter of 2026, and the market could then re-enter an accumulation phase ahead of the Bitcoin halving in 2028.

Bitcoin price targets also diverge. Some market participants forecast that Bitcoin could rise to $250,000 to as high as $500,000 in the next upcycle, but the outcome could vary depending on the macroeconomic environment, institutional demand and whether adoption expands.

The Crypto Basic stressed that “Bitcoin is still the dominant force in the digital asset market,” adding that investors need to keep watching Bitcoin’s price moves and institutional fund flows to judge the potential for a future bull run. It also advised that when the market sets new all-time highs and excessive optimism spreads, profit-taking strategies should also be considered.