[DigitalToday reporter Yoonseo Lee (이윤서)] Asset manager Bitwise assessed that Bitcoin still has mid- to long-term upside even after it was pushed out of the $80,000 range at one point.

On June 1 local time, blockchain outlet The Crypto Basic said Bitwise, in a report analyzing Bitcoin market trends in May, diagnosed that short-term demand has weakened but supply conditions are becoming tighter.

Bitcoin rose above $80,000 in May and climbed to around $83,000 at one point. Bitwise cited a short squeeze and improved on-chain indicators as drivers of the rise. During this period, there were moments when Bitcoin outperformed U.S. stocks and gold. As prices rose, $166.5 million flowed into Bitcoin exchange-traded products (ETPs), and long-term holders accumulated about 125,000 BTC more than the previous month.

The rally did not last long. After hitting strong resistance in the $80,000 to $85,000 range, Bitcoin slid to around $71,000. Over the same period, global Bitcoin ETPs saw net outflows of more than $1 billion, and investor sentiment shrank quickly. Bitwise presented the area around $72,000 as a key dividing line between a bull market and a bear market.

On the supply side, the long-term holding trend became clearer. Bitcoin held by long-term investors increased to 14.85 million BTC, accounting for 74.3 percent of the circulating supply. That means coins are continuing to move to investors with a low willingness to sell even as market volatility grows. Bitwise said if this holding trend continues, supply pressure could ease even when demand is weak.

Another key variable in the report was the global government bond market. Bitwise pointed to higher Japanese government bond yields, $29 trillion in global debt needing refinancing in 2026, and an International Monetary Fund warning that markets may not be able to keep absorbing rising government debt. Bitwise said if debt conditions worsen further, central banks could provide additional liquidity, and Bitcoin could benefit.

Bitwise also cited Bitcoin's structural characteristics as a basis for the analysis. It said because Bitcoin operates separately from governments and does not rely on a central issuer, it could serve as a potential hedge against sovereign debt risk. It added that Bitcoin has historically shown strong performance when real interest rates fall, and that if the U.S. Federal Reserve halts rate hikes while inflation remains high, declining real yields could be supportive for the Bitcoin investment environment.

On valuation, Bitwise assessed that Bitcoin is not in an overheated zone. Its analysis showed Bitcoin's market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio was below the long-term average, and only 36 percent of past readings were lower. By contrast, the Nasdaq 100 price-to-book (P/B) ratio is hovering near record highs. Bitwise said the wider the gap becomes, the more likely investment money could move from overvalued technology shares to scarce assets such as Bitcoin.

Bitwise identified the $78,000 to $80,000 range as a key level. It said multiple indicators point to the zone as an important price area. If Bitcoin regains the $78,000 to $85,000 range, investor sentiment could improve and new inflows could resume, it said.

The Bitcoin market is currently in a phase where slowing demand and shrinking supply are confronting each other. Demand has weakened across spot, ETP, derivatives and on-chain markets, but expanding long-term holdings, relatively low valuation and growing concerns over sovereign debt could form the foundation for the next bull market, Bitwise said.

Bitcoin recovered above $80k in May 2026 before stalling at the $80k–$85k bull-bear threshold and subsequently falling to $72k. ETP outflows, sovereign bond stress, and record hodling defined the month. Read the full edition of our latest Bitcoin Macro Investor below. pic.twitter.com/oM5ctCIVxW