A warning has emerged that a global shortage of crude oil inventories could reach a critical level within weeks. Brent crude could surge to $150 to $160 a barrel if supply does not recover quickly.

On May 29 local time, blockchain outlet BeInCrypto reported that ExxonMobil senior vice president Neil Chapman (닐 채프먼) made the projection at an event for investors.

Chapman said the market is approaching unusually low inventory levels. He said, "There are only 2 to 3 weeks left before the inventory shortage delivers a real shock to the market."

Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are in the background. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said global crude oil inventories fell by about 246 million barrels in March and April. After shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz began, the pace of inventory declines accelerated further. Observers have also raised the possibility that cumulative supply losses could exceed 1 billion barrels by the end of this month. The explanation is that Tehran's blockade has blocked about one-fifth of global crude oil flows.

The market is also pointing to tighter conditions in actual commercial inventories than surface-level inventory indicators suggest. Releases of government stockpiles and sales of strategic reserves absorbed some of the shock, but inventories in storage tanks and pipelines linked to private demand fell faster, the argument goes. Even if government inventories serve as a buffer, the market cannot hold out for long if commercial supply also shrinks.

ExxonMobil's internal supply model also reflects that trend. Chapman said Brent could rise to around $150 a barrel if physical buyers end up competing for limited volumes. He also presented $160 as an upper scenario.

Warnings from independent analysts are similar. Some traders said the futures market is not fully reflecting supply pressure in the spot market. They cited widening price spreads between crude grades and shifts in refined product margins. HFI Research said, "Gasoline and middle distillate inventories are so tight that only 9 million barrels are left, like right before payday," adding, "We are in a precarious state." It added that at the current pace, the 9 million barrels could be depleted within 2 to 3 weeks.

The projection is also emerging as a variable for cryptocurrency and macro investors. Rising oil prices could stoke inflation expectations and make central banks' interest-rate paths more complicated. Markets have in fact tended to react sensitively to risk assets whenever tensions flared around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, and Bitcoin (BTC) has previously weakened during periods of concern about supply shocks, the outlet reported.

The point to watch going forward is whether physical supply recovers. If disruptions persist as peak summer demand overlaps with hurricane season, the risk of gasoline shortages could also rise. Conversely, if prices jump to above $150 a barrel for Brent, demand destruction could become the path that restores balance. Over the next few weeks, whether actual inventory flows confirm Chapman's warning is emerging as a key variable for global oil prices and risk assets broadly.