[DigitalToday reporter Yoonseo Lee] Bitcoin has again flashed a bearish signal seen before an early-year 35 percent plunge, falling below all four key exponential moving averages (EMAs) on the daily chart.

On May 27 (local time), blockchain media outlet BeInCrypto reported that at the same time a whale took the opposite position by withdrawing 873.29 BTC, worth about $66.24 million, from crypto exchange OKX.

Bitcoin was trading in the $75,000 range and fell below the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day and 200-day EMAs. Those levels are $77,428, $76,677, $76,812 and $81,367. Breaking below major moving averages at once on the daily chart is regarded as one of the representative bearish signals so far in 2026.

On-chain data, however, showed signs of large-scale accumulation. The wallet withdrew 873.29 BTC from OKX early on Wednesday, and its current holdings were tallied at 881 BTC. The wallet appears to have continued small withdrawals starting about 1 week ago. That has produced mixed interpretations about market direction. While technical indicators point to a possible bearish move, large funds are interpreted as viewing the recent drop as a buying opportunity.

This year, including this time, there have been four instances of Bitcoin breaking below all four EMAs. The first was in late January, when Bitcoin closed below all moving averages and then fell 35.02 percent over 2 weeks. That was the largest single drop so far this year.

The next two instances unfolded differently. On March 26 the same signal appeared, but the decline stopped at 7.36 percent before rebounding. On May 22 it fell 3.32 percent and then returned to the moving-average zone. The two most recent cases showed moves closer to short corrections than a full breakdown.

The difference split along long-term holder flows. According to Glassnode's long-term holder net position change indicator, wallets held for at least 365 days were in a large net selling phase from late 2025 through the sharp-drop period in January 2026. Distribution peaked at about 200,000 BTC.

From early March the situation changed. Long-term holders maintained a net buying phase for about 3 months, and inflows frequently exceeded 100,000 BTC a day. That period overlaps with the limited declines in March and May. Even in the current down phase, the long-term holder indicator remains in positive territory. The market is therefore gauging by price level whether this decline will be limited to a flow similar to the May correction or expand to the scale of the January plunge.

Bitcoin is down about 2 percent since breaking below the moving averages. If it follows a path similar to May 22, the decline could be limited around $73,873. That level is the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement of gains from late March to mid-May. If the drop moves closer to the March 26 case, the next support was presented at $71,773. That would put the overall decline at about 6 to 7 percent.

To confirm a rebound, Bitcoin must first recover $75,973 on a daily closing basis. If it then breaks above $78,572, it can re-enter the key moving-average zone. A move above $82,772 would meet the conditions for returning to the prior uptrend.

The January risk has not fully disappeared. If Glassnode's long-term holder net position turns negative again during this decline, the mild correction scenario seen in March and May would lose traction. In the end, in the short term whether $75,973 is recovered, and in the medium term whether long-term holders keep net buying, remain variables that will determine the character of this correction.

A wallet has withdrawn 873.29 $BTC ($66.24M) from #OKX. The wallet now holds 881 $BTC ($66.73M).https://t.co/1ffj498O6U pic.twitter.com/WJ5lR7Jcw5