With talk growing that Elon Musk's space company SpaceX could pursue what would be the biggest U.S. stock market listing on record, JPMorgan has forecast that the chances of large-scale liquidity outflows from Asian markets including Hong Kong are limited. It cited global investors' continued diversification and still-strong interest in Chinese technology companies.

On May 23, the South China Morning Post reported that markets are watching the possibility that SpaceX could sell as much as $75 billion in shares on Nasdaq in the future. If completed, it would become the world's largest initial public offering, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29.4 billion IPO in 2019. The expected fund-raising alone would be more than double the $37.2 billion raised by Hong Kong's IPO market in total last year.

JPMorgan analysed that even if a mega deal emerges, global capital flows are unlikely to abruptly concentrate in a single market. Paul Uren (폴 유런), JPMorgan's Asia Pacific investment banking head, said global investors are continuously seeking ways to diversify capital by region and industry. He said a single large transaction does not automatically worsen funding conditions in other markets, and assessed that investment demand in global capital markets remains solid.

Fundamentals for Hong Kong's IPO market were also cited positively. According to Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing, about 500 companies are waiting to list in Hong Kong, up sharply from about 300 at the end of last year. A key driver is that mainland China A-share listed companies are actively considering Hong Kong listings to broaden their overseas investor base and raise global capital.

In fact, mainland Chinese A-share companies that issued H-shares in Hong Kong last year accounted for nearly half of total IPO supply. Uren said many Chinese companies want to expand their investor base and that a Hong Kong IPO is seen as the most efficient route to achieve that.

Performance indicators are also supporting Hong Kong's recovery. LSEG Data & Analytics data showed 37 companies raised a total of $13.26 billion on the Hong Kong exchange's main board in the first quarter this year. That was up 453 percent from a year earlier. Over the same period, Nasdaq recorded 18 listings raising $5.65 billion, and the New York Stock Exchange recorded 9 listings raising $4.95 billion.

Markets see that even if Hong Kong cedes the top global IPO spot to New York this year, it can still maintain fund-raising competitiveness at least at the No. 2 level. Hong Kong rose to become the world's largest IPO market last year on the back of large listings by mainland Chinese companies.

International capital interest is also extending to Chinese technology companies more broadly. JPMorgan said overseas investor interest in Chinese technology companies remains strong. It said companies in artificial intelligence, robotics and healthcare are drawing global capital. Lewis Ogannes (루이스 오가네스), JPMorgan's global macro research head, said Chinese companies in renewable energy and electric vehicles are at the centre of technological innovation, and that demand among Western investors to directly verify local technological competitiveness is growing.

Ultimately, the key variable for markets is not the SpaceX listing itself but how much global capital is diversified across markets and industries. JPMorgan said that even if a mega IPO appears, it is unlikely that Hong Kong listing demand and international investor interest in Chinese technology companies will weaken in the short term.