Even as smartphone shipments fall due to rising memory semiconductor prices, Korea's display big two are expected to hold up relatively well in the first quarter.

Samsung Display is expected to fend off the seasonal lull with supplies for new flagship products, while LG Display is forecast to return to profit on base effects from one-off costs booked in the fourth quarter and a gap left by Chinese rivals.

Samsung Display's panel supplies for new flagship products such as the Galaxy S25 series are expected to have a positive impact.

According to Hana Securities, Samsung Display's first-quarter mobile display shipments are expected to fall 38 percent from a year earlier, but its average selling price is seen edging down only slightly from the previous quarter to $55.09. In its previous earnings conference call, Samsung Display said demand for quantum dot (QD)-OLED was relatively solid.

LG Display also absorbed the impact of the off-season. Base effects kicked in after about 390 billion won in one-off costs related to restructuring and inventory were reflected in the fourth quarter last year. Daishin Securities estimated LG Display's first-quarter operating profit at 21.1 billion won, up 530 percent from a year earlier and up 25 percent from the previous quarter. That is 54 percent above consensus.

In addition, price negotiations are staying favorable as China's BOE repeatedly fails to enter Apple's new models. SK Securities analyzed that "as China's BOE continues to fail to enter new models, the price negotiation process will also be favorable."

With the first-quarter market environment holding up better than expected, some see the annual growth path becoming clearer. According to SK Securities, LG Display is expected to cut depreciation costs by about 500 billion won from a year earlier while continuing a profitability improvement trend through a shift in its OLED portfolio.

Samsung Display plans to lead an expansion in OLED market share in IT devices beyond smartphones through mass production on its 8.6-generation IT OLED line, scheduled to begin operations this year. In the conference call, CEO Choi said, "We will pursue revenue growth through mass production on the new 8.6-generation IT OLED line and by expanding sales of products other than smartphones."

◆Foldable iPhone and humanoids in H2 bring mid- to long-term momentum into view

The biggest variable in the second half is Apple's first foldable iPhone. Bloomberg said Apple's foldable phone is expected to come with a starting price of $2,000. Some analysis says it could rise to as much as $2,799 depending on the storage configuration. The profit benefit from a high-priced product would go to Samsung Display.

Samsung Display will supply all panels for the foldable, which is set to be the most expensive iPhone ever. According to IBK Investment & Securities, it is expected to feature a 7.5-inch internal panel and a 5.5-inch external panel, produced on a dedicated line at Samsung Display's A3 plant. As it is a high-priced product, the impact of a higher ASP is expected to be greater than shipment volumes.

LG Display is opening new sources of demand beyond smartphones and TVs in a different way. Daishin Securities said LG Display is likely to be recognized as a partner for OLED display supply cooperation for multiple humanoid and robot companies, including Tesla Optimus and Boston Dynamics Atlas.

It is seen that LG Display, which has already secured reliability in automotive OLEDs, could maintain a competitive edge in the humanoid market, where low power consumption and high reliability are required. The key is whether foldable iPhone shipments meet market expectations. IBK Investment & Securities pointed out that if it remains at about 5 percent of total iPhone shipments, the impact on panel makers would not be significant.