[Digital Today reporter Jinju Hong (홍진주)] An analysis says XRP is forming an ascending triangle pattern and is close to breaking through a key resistance zone. It also says clear upward momentum is still lacking and an external catalyst is needed.

On March 18, blockchain media outlet The Crypto Basic reported that market analyst EGRAG said XRP is trading just below strong resistance in the $1.65 to $1.70 range. He said recent price action shows highs holding steady while lows gradually rise, calling it a typical ascending triangle pattern. Such a pattern often appears as buying pressure gradually strengthens and attempts to break resistance.

In particular, rising support on each pullback suggests market participants are stepping in to buy at earlier price levels. At the same time, as liquidity builds above resistance, the likelihood of a short-term breakout rally is also increasing if buying pressure reaches a certain level.

The market is now seen as entering a "compression phase," where the gap between support and resistance is narrowing. This phase is generally just before the balance of power between buyers and sellers breaks, often followed by a sharp expansion in volatility. EGRAG put the probability of XRP breaking the resistance zone (Zone 1) at about 65 percent, but said there is a 35 percent chance of a failed breakout followed by a short-term decline, or fakeout.

If the price settles above $1.70, a further upward move is likely to gather pace. If it fails to break out, it could pull back again within the triangle pattern and continue moving sideways. The direction is expected to be influenced heavily not only by technical factors but also by external variables.

A key variable for this bullish breakout is seen as progress on the Clarity (CLARITY) bill, a U.S. cryptocurrency regulation bill. The bill contains provisions to classify cryptocurrencies as securities or commodities and to clarify regulatory jurisdiction, and is viewed as a key framework that could reduce uncertainty across the market.

The bill has not yet fully passed. It cleared the U.S. House of Representatives in July 2025, but talks in the Senate have been delayed by conflicts of interest between banks and the crypto industry. Disagreements over the scope of regulation and whether it applies to DeFi have not narrowed, leaving its final passage uncertain.

Market participants see passage of the bill as potentially driving XRP higher by supporting institutional inflows and improving investor sentiment. If talks are delayed or uncertainty persists, some say the current range-bound move could be prolonged.

If it rises, the next major target zone is around $2.60. That level implies about 70 to 80 percent upside from the current price and corresponds to the ascending triangle's measured move. Still, additional market conditions are needed to break through that zone.

EGRAG also pointed to bitcoin price stability and changes in market dominance as important variables. If bitcoin volatility eases or its dominance falls, funds could shift to altcoins and support an XRP rise, he said. He also cited broader institutional inflows and the possibility of a spot XRP ETF launch as additional upside drivers.

In the medium term, a key inflection point was whether the price can hold steadily at $1.85 to $2 or higher on a weekly basis. If that zone turns into support, the chance of breaking $2.60 would increase, and the next resistance at $3.40 could come into view. That would imply the possibility of gains of more than 100 percent from the current price, the analysis said.

#XRP – Ascending Triangle vs Zone 1 (Decision Time) The Clarity Act Measured Move: The Chart us Saying the following: ▫️ Ascending Triangle forming under Zone 1 ($1.65–$1.70) ▫️ Higher lows = buyers stepping in ▫️ Resistance flat = liquidity sitting above ▫️This is classic… pic.twitter.com/vCVJYmVYXn