An analyst at asset manager Fidelity, Julien Timmer (주리엔 티머), said funds are unlikely to move into bitcoin even if the rally in artificial intelligence-related stocks slows.

On Nov. 12 (local time), blockchain media outlet U.Today reported that Timmer said bitcoin could benefit in part as enthusiasm for AI investing cools, but recovery signals in prices and fund flows must be confirmed first.

Timmer raised doubts about whether the recent stock-market rally can continue at the same pace. The equal-weighted S&P 500 has shown relatively healthy market conditions, but he assessed that in a top-heavy market it may not be enough to support gains in the headline index.

He also said large-scale fundraising concentrated in AI companies cannot continue indefinitely. With huge sums flowing into OpenAI and Anthropic, he said an initial public offering could become an opportunity for existing investors to take profits. Anthropic announced on Nov. 10 that it would begin an IPO roadshow and decided to pursue both a partial sale of existing shareholders' stakes and a new share issuance.

The key is where money leaving AI investments goes. Timmer left open the possibility that cryptocurrencies could benefit in part as the market's leading theme changes. But he explained that it is hard to see funds exiting AI-related stocks naturally heading into bitcoin because appetite for risky assets and market liquidity are weakening together.

Timmer cited volatility and security concerns as factors blocking inflows. He said uncertainty over bitcoin's ability to respond to cybersecurity issues and quantum computing threats could limit new investors from entering.

If a market shift materialises, he mentioned bitcoin as the asset that could benefit first. But he added the condition that signs supporting a shift to strength must appear in bitcoin and in top altcoins by market capitalisation. He said recovery can be confirmed only if price peaks rise above previous highs and funds flow steadily into institutional investment products such as exchange-traded funds.

Timmer's analysis focuses on treating the cooling of AI investment enthusiasm and a shift to strength in cryptocurrencies as separate. He said it is not enough for bitcoin to be mentioned as an alternative to AI, and that the bitcoin market must prove through prices and supply-demand conditions that it can attract actual funds.

If the entire AI trade is “over,” the soldiers in the S&P 500 (ex-AI) will have a lot of heavy lifting to do to keep the bull market from stalling out. As we see below, the equal-weighted index has performed quite well lately but in a top-heavy market it may not be enough to provide positive beta to the headline index.