Bitcoin [Photo: Reve AI]

Bitcoin is failing to establish a clear direction around the $75,000 level.

On Nov. 9 (local time), blockchain media outlet Decrypt reported that bitcoin hit an intraday low for the first time in about 2 months and then rebounded to the $75,100 range. Across the broader derivatives market, $1.2 billion of forced liquidations occurred over 24 hours.

U.S. stocks rebounded on the day as oil prices fell. The S&P 500 rose 1.9 percent and the Nasdaq Composite gained 2.2 percent. Brent crude fell 4.3 percent to about $94 a barrel. Nvidia's share price decline, however, weighed on sentiment toward tech stocks.

Markets are focusing on the U.S. October consumer price index (CPI) due on Nov. 10. After stronger-than-expected employment data, traders are pricing in an about 80 percent chance of a 0.25 percentage point rate hike by the Federal Reserve in December. Against that backdrop, risk assets are showing a mix of rebound and caution.

Bitcoin at one point fell as low as $73,667 intraday before rebounding. It has shown high volatility, having surged from about $57,700 to $87,350 and then retreated back toward the $75,000 level.

Large-scale liquidations also hit the derivatives market. CoinGlass data showed that of the total $1.2 billion in forced liquidations, about $1.04 billion came from long positions that had bet on prices rising. Liquidations of bitcoin positions totaled $324 million, of which about 87 percent were long positions.

Technically, $74,400 has been presented as initial support. With bitcoin already dipping below that level once this week, the key will be whether it can regain it by the weekly close. If the weekly close falls below that level, the next support at $72,550 could come under test. If that breaks as well, the possibility of further declines toward the $69,000 range, where the 200-week exponential moving average sits, has been raised.

If the rebound continues, the first resistance is $76,040. A break above that would make $78,250, the 50-week exponential moving average, the next hurdle. After that, the focus would shift to whether it can reclaim $80,360, and if it clears that zone it could challenge the prior rebound peak of $87,350 again.

In the medium-to-long-term trend, it is difficult to conclude that the upward flow has been completely broken. The 50-week exponential moving average remains above the 200-week exponential moving average, keeping the bullish alignment intact. Still, the current price is below the 50-week exponential moving average, and the gap between the two averages has narrowed significantly. Investors should also watch whether a dead cross occurs, with the 50-week line crossing below the 200-week line.

The relative strength index (RSI) was 47.8, slightly below the neutral level of 50. Selling pressure is somewhat dominant, but it remains far from 30, which is typically seen as the threshold for oversold. The average directional index (ADX), which indicates trend strength, was 21.9, below 25, a level used to judge a strong trend. Directional indicators, however, showed buying interest holding a narrow edge, producing mixed signals across the indicators.

In the short term, U.S. inflation data and bitcoin's weekly closing price are expected to determine direction. Even if risk appetite recovers, the rebound may have limits if it fails to clear $76,040 and $78,250 in sequence. If the weekly close falls below $74,400, downside pressure could increase and the market could test support at $72,550 and the $69,000 range in turn.

Keyword

#Bitcoin #U.S. CPI #S&P 500 #Nasdaq #CoinGlass
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