Asset manager Bitwise raised its base-case target price for Bitcoin in 2036 to $1,599,766.

Bitcoin Magazine reported on Oct. 28 that Bitwise lifted the forecast from $1.3 million in its report titled "Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions for 2027," a year after its previous projection.

The forecast assumes a 34.3 percent compound annual growth rate based on Bitcoin's Sept. 30, 2026 price of $83,557. Bitwise put the conservative-case target at $130,686 and the optimistic-case target at $3.67 million. Bitcoin was trading around $80,500 on the day.

Bitwise cited growing institutional allocations to Bitcoin, limited new supply and rising government debt as key reasons. It said demand from institutional investors is increasing, while new issuance is constrained by a fixed schedule. It added that expanding government debt could increase preferences for assets with limited supply.

Bitwise estimated that if institutions managing $147 trillion in assets allocate 1 to 5 percent of their portfolios to Bitcoin, it could generate buying demand of about $1.5 trillion to $7.4 trillion. It said annual new issuance amounts to about $14 billion, and viewed the demand-supply gap as a factor that could drive prices higher.

The regulatory environment is also a key variable. It said that if the U.S. Federal Reserve adopts a plan to ease capital rules related to bank custody, large institutions could find it easier to enter the market. Bitwise also pointed to a case in which the Clarity Act failed to pass Congress, and said institutional improvements could be delayed or halted.

Views differ on market cycles. Bitcoin fell 53.4 percent from an October 2025 peak of $126,080 to a June 30, 2026 low of $58,717. Bitwise said the pullback was relatively small given declines of 77 percent, 84 percent and 86 percent in previous cycles. It said the influence of the four-year cycle could weaken as the investor base broadens, but other analysts say the existing halving pattern remains valid.

Lower volatility is another pillar of the long-term outlook. Using the midpoint between the current level and its 2036 estimate, Bitwise assumed average volatility of 27.8 percent over the next 10 years. The head of research at Grayscale said volatility over the past year was 43 percent, below the 10-year average of 64 percent. A Deutsche Bank analyst interpreted that as a sign of market maturation. Charles Schwab research, however, said the risk of sharp declines remains even if volatility has eased.

Technical risks also remain. Bitwise said mathematical advances accelerated by quantum computing and artificial intelligence could threaten cryptographic technology that protects Bitcoin wallets. It warned that responding could require major network upgrades in the future, and that holders who fail to move funds to new addresses could be exposed to risk. It added that developers have made progress over the past year but major tasks remain unresolved.

The report presented Bitcoin price forecasts not as simple figures but in connection with institutional inflows, supply structure and changes in volatility. It also flagged regulatory and technical risks alongside long-term optimism, and is read as material for gauging market maturity.