The U.S. Federal Reserve held its policy rate unchanged at 3.75 to 4.00 percent. Two officials argued for a 0.25 percentage point increase, leaving open the possibility of another hike in December.

On Oct. 28, blockchain media outlet Decrypto reported that the Fed decided to hold rates in a 10-2 vote.

The dissenters were Fed Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack. The two said at this meeting that rates should be raised by another 0.25 percentage point. In September, the Fed raised rates for the first time since 2023, and the vote then was unanimous at 12-0.

Bitcoin rose by about 0.2 percent immediately after the announcement. With the market pricing in about a 90 percent chance of a hold, the decision did not come as a new shock.

The Fed said economic activity was expanding rapidly, upgrading its assessment of the economy from September. On employment, it said job gains were keeping pace with labor force growth and the unemployment rate had not changed significantly.

It also maintained vigilance on prices. The Fed said inflation remained high and more information was needed to determine an appropriate policy stance to return inflation to its 2 percent goal. It signaled it would decide its policy direction while checking upcoming economic indicators.

Attention is now turning to whether there will be an additional rate hike in December. Before this meeting, the market was pricing in a more than 70 percent chance that the policy rate would rise by 0.25 percentage point at the Dec. 8-9 meeting. Minutes from the September meeting also showed that many officials judged there was a high likelihood that one additional hike by year-end could be appropriate.

The crypto market is reacting more sensitively to resulting shifts in capital flows than to the level of interest rates itself. If U.S. Treasury yields rise, funds are more likely to move into relatively safe bonds rather than volatile assets. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield ended at 4.99 percent on Oct. 27. It is down from the 5.31 percent peak recorded on Oct. 5, but remains at a level that could weigh on risky assets.

Leverage positions are also a variable. On days with macro events such as Fed meetings, borrowing-based trading often amplifies price swings. If prices move sharply, forced liquidations by exchanges can add to selling pressure. After Fed Chair Kevin Warsh gave a Jackson Hole speech in August, about $481 million in crypto positions were liquidated over 24 hours.

There are also upcoming indicators the market will watch. The U.S. October jobs report will be released on Nov. 6, and October inflation data on Nov. 10. The Fed will also release new economic projections at its December meeting. As a result, the crypto market, including bitcoin, has become more likely to react more to employment and inflation trends and the Fed's year-end policy path than to short-term prices.