Bitcoin’s share of trading days with higher returns than the S&P 500 has recently climbed back above 50 percent, but its cumulative monthly performance still trails the S&P 500, it has been confirmed.

On Oct. 28 (local time), blockchain media outlet CryptoSlate reported that on-chain analytics firm Glassnode’s tally showed Bitcoin’s daily relative win rate versus the S&P 500 recovered to above 50 percent recently from about 20 percent in June. In June, Bitcoin beat the S&P 500 on only about 1 out of 5 sessions, marking its weakest run in about 6 years.

A comparison of the two assets on the same trading days through Oct. 26 showed Bitcoin outperformed the S&P 500 on 10 of 18 sessions, or 55.6 percent. Over the same period, Bitcoin fell 4.25 percent while the S&P 500 rose 0.33 percent, leaving Bitcoin 4.58 percentage points behind in cumulative returns. The average gap on the 10 sessions when Bitcoin led was about 0.71 percentage points, but on the 8 sessions when it lagged the gap averaged about 1.44 percentage points, about twice as large.

In the spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) market, funds concentrated in BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT). A Coinbase Institutional report said that since Aug. 1, about $6 billion flowed into IBIT on a net basis, while net inflows into the rest of spot bitcoin ETFs totalled about $500 million.

As money later moved out of other ETFs, IBIT’s share of net inflows rose further. Farside Investors said that from Aug. 3 to Oct. 26, IBIT logged about $5.7 billion in net inflows, while the rest totalled about $221 million, giving IBIT about 96.3 percent of the total. Daily relative win rates recovered, but that did not translate into improved monthly returns or broader ETF inflows overall.

Spot market demand also remains weak. Stablecoin supply has fallen by about $12.7 billion from its May peak, and the 7-day average of the Coinbase premium, used to gauge relative buying pressure on global crypto exchanges, has stayed negative throughout this month.

In the options market, demand to guard against downside risk has increased. Glassnode said the 25-delta skew, which measures the implied volatility gap between put and call options, rose to 10.4 percent from 8.9 percent. Despite inflows into some ETFs, weak spot demand and persistent downside caution have left Bitcoin’s recovery still unstable.

The key question ahead is whether daily relative strength will lead to a rebound in monthly returns. Whether inflows also expand beyond IBIT to other ETFs and whether spot buying recovers are expected to be key indicators for gauging the foundation for a Bitcoin rise.