[DigitalToday reporter Jae-won Choi (최재원)] Renewables’ share of U.S. power generation capacity could exceed 40 percent within a year and overtake natural gas, a forecast showed. Capacity is growing rapidly, led by solar and wind, and changes are expected in the structure of U.S. electricity supply.

Electrek reported on Oct. 27 local time that nonprofit energy group SUN DAY Campaign, after analyzing U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data, forecast renewables’ share of capacity expanding to 40.4 percent by summer 2027 from 37.7 percent now.

Renewable power generation also increased. U.S. renewable generation in January to August rose 10.2 percent from the same period a year earlier. Utility-scale solar climbed 20.0 percent, small-scale solar 12.0 percent and wind 7.8 percent.

Over the same period, wind accounted for 10.6 percent of total power production and solar 10.5 percent. Their combined share was 21.1 percent, exceeding coal generation by 44.4 percent and nuclear by 24.8 percent. The overall share of renewable generation rose to 28.1 percent this year from 26.2 percent last year.

The pace of capacity expansion was faster. From September last year to August this year, renewable capacity including solar and wind increased by about 43,500 megawatts (MW). Net additions of fossil fuel and nuclear capacity totaled about 2,600 MW.

The EIA expects utility-scale solar capacity to rise by about 44,600 MW and wind by about 8,300 MW over the next year. Renewables’ share of capacity, excluding small-scale solar, is expected to increase to 37.3 percent from 34.5 percent.

Adding SUN DAY Campaign’s estimate of about 6,000 MW in small-scale solar capacity would bring total renewable capacity to about 550,000 MW. That would be above projected natural gas capacity of about 518,300 MW at the same point.

Battery energy storage system (ESS) capacity is also expected to rise 43.7 percent through September next year. The 40.4 percent forecast assumes an increase in small-scale solar, and generation capacity does not mean actual power output.