A view has emerged that investors should guard against hasty decisions in a bear market, citing a past case in which XRP surged after moving sideways for about two years.

The Crypto Basic, a blockchain media outlet, reported on Oct. 22 that Vandell Aljarrah (반델 알자라), a co-founder of Blackswan Capitalist, recently pointed to XRP's price action ahead of the 2017-2018 bull market in a post on X, formerly Twitter, stressing the meaning of a long consolidation phase.

Aljarrah wrote that XRP built a base for about two years before entering its rally at the time. He said a long period of sideways trading can precede a big rise. He added that losing patience during stagnation is a novice mistake.

In the XRP/USD weekly chart shared with the post, XRP traded sideways for about 742 days in a range of $0.004 to $0.011. It later broke above that range in 2017 and reached the cycle peak in January 2018. Aljarrah explained that the gain over that period amounted to about 630 times.

A disagreement emerged over how to calculate the increase. One user said that if XRP rose from about $0.006 to its all-time high of $3.84, the gain would be about 64,000 percent. Aljarrah said it depends on which exchange is used as the benchmark, and argued that from the 2014 cycle low to the January 2018 peak, the gain amounts to about 119,000 percent.

A counterargument was also raised that it is hard to apply past moves directly to the current market. Some investors said the crypto market now is very different from 2017-2018, and voiced skepticism about the possibility of a similar-sized rise, citing the influence of market makers and suspicions of corruption.

Questions were also raised about XRP's long-term value. Critics pointed out that while it once climbed from less than 1 cent to several dollars, no further rise of a comparable scale followed. The reaction reflects market doubts over whether past price patterns can serve as a basis for predicting current and future moves.

XRP is currently around $1.30, about 66 percent below its prior peak of $3.84. A 62,000 percent rise from the current level would put it at about $807, but most analysts were reported to be skeptical about the feasibility of hitting such a target in the short term. Some views do not completely rule out the possibility over a long-term outlook spanning decades.

XRP has also risen about 700 percent in the 2024-2025 market cycle. The core of the debate is not the past rate of increase itself, but whether a long consolidation can again lead to a recovery and a rise. Aljarrah maintained that patience is needed even in stagnation, but caution has persisted over whether a sharp surge like the past can be repeated.

"Losing patience during market stagnation is a novice mistake, remember XRP consolidated for roughly 2 years before executing a 62,000% macro expansion phase in 2017/2018. That's crypto. https://t.co/EBZYSZ40wz"