A cautious view has emerged that XRP may struggle to post a sharp rebound by the end of 2026.

The Crypto Basic, a blockchain media outlet, reported on Oct. 19 that crypto analyst Jack Lector said volatility in XRP and the broader crypto market could persist through year-end due to the U.S. midterm elections, geopolitical issues and the possibility of Federal Reserve rate hikes.

XRP fell sharply after trading near $3 in October 2025. It is currently priced at $1.3147. It would need to rise 128.19 percent to reclaim $3. Lector acknowledged such a recovery was possible, but said he did not expect an immediate "explosive rally". He judged that political schedules and shifts in monetary policy could keep weighing on investor sentiment, sustaining high volatility for the rest of 2026.

He maintained an optimistic stance over the longer term. He defined 2027 to 2029 as a "life-changing opportunity" and urged investors to stay in the market. He also expected XRP could reach double-digit prices relatively smoothly during that period.

A problem is that the grounds for this long-term outlook were not presented in detail. That has led to criticism that the outlook is closer to a speculative projection.

Criticism has also continued within the XRP community over Lector's past forecasts. Some investors pointed out that he had previously expected XRP would never fall below $2 again, but the subsequent price action overturned that view. Criticism also continued over a forecast that XRP could reach a triple-digit price in 2030. XRP would need to rise 7,506 percent to reach a triple-digit price.

A more short-term optimistic view was also presented. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez said XRP could be preparing for a rebound toward $2. He noted that when XRP was trading near the $1.25 support line, the dollar-denominated transaction value on the XRP Ledger (XRPL) surged. The value of coins moved on-chain rose to $49.7 billion, and a rebound started in that zone, he said.

Martinez interpreted the surge in on-chain activity near the key support level as a signal that a price bottom was forming. He judged XRP may have built a floor near $1.25 and could rise to $2 as long as that support holds. From the current price of $1.3147, XRP would need to rise 52.11 percent to reach $2.

Ultimately, outlooks on XRP are split between the short and long term. Lector drew a line at the likelihood of a sharp rise before year-end, while placing strong expectations on the 2027-2029 long-term cycle. Martinez's scenario, meanwhile, depends on whether support at $1.25 holds. As a result, the key focus for the XRP market for the time being is expected to be whether it can defend key price levels alongside macro variables.

"Just to be clear, I am not expecting fireworks for XRP or crypto by the EOY. Midterms, War, Fed Rate Hikes, etc. It’s going to be bumpy and at best I see XRP getting back above $3. 2027 -2029 will be a life changing cycle though so please stay locked in. Double digits with ease."