Retail investor sentiment around XRP shifted toward buying across major cryptocurrency exchanges.

On Oct. 16 (local time), blockchain outlet The Crypto Basic reported that last week’s shock from U.S. inflation data rattled the broader crypto market, but retail traders are putting more weight on an XRP rise.

CoinGlass data showed retail long-short ratios on Binance, OKX and Bybit were all classified in an “extreme bullish” zone. Binance’s retail long-short ratio was 2.70, OKX was 3.26 and Bybit was 3.92. The figures were slightly lower than previous readings, but suggest many retail investors see more upside potential than downside risk for XRP.

That sentiment diverged somewhat from recent price action. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Oct. 14 that the September consumer price index rose 0.6 percent from the previous month. Annual inflation rose to 3.7 percent from 3.4 percent in August, above the market forecast of 3.6 percent, and core CPI excluding food and energy rose 0.3 percent on the month, topping the 0.2 percent estimate.

The crypto market reacted quickly after the data release. XRP fell 1.63 percent in under 15 minutes, sliding from $1.38 to an intraday low of $1.3574. Total market capitalisation also fell by about $40 billion in 45 minutes. On Oct. 15, producer price index data also fuelled inflation concerns and intensified selling pressure. PPI rose 1.3 percent month on month and 6.3 percent year on year, renewing caution about the possibility of additional rate hikes.

XRP later slipped to around $1.30, and total liquidations across the crypto market over the past four days reached $1.7 billion. On Oct. 16, buying defended the $1.32 support zone, helping XRP recover to around $1.34.

Short-term execution data also indicated a buying edge. Based on CoinGlass 24-hour taker buy and sell volume, long volume was $1.23 billion, or 51.09 percent of the total. Short volume was $1.18 billion, or 48.91 percent.

Large-fund positioning diverged by exchange. On Binance, the whale account long-short ratio rose to 3.30, entering an “extreme bullish” zone. The whale position ratio also held in bullish territory at 1.99. The smart money indicator, however, was still tallied as “extreme bearish”.

On OKX, large investors appeared more cautious. The whale account ratio was 0.81 and the whale position ratio was 0.79, both remaining in bearish territory. The smart money indicator was also bearish. On Bybit, the whale account ratio of 3.92 signalled “extreme bullish” sentiment, but the whale position ratio was neutral at 0.97. The smart money indicator showed “extreme bearish”, as on Binance.

Technical support levels also emerged as a key focus. Analyst Ali Charts pointed to $1.25 as XRP’s next key support if buying fails to defend the current trading range. It warned that a break could trigger another steep drop. The $1.25 level is about 16 percent below the price range before the inflation shock.

Institutional flows remain weak. Spot XRP exchange-traded funds saw net inflows of $13 million in October. That represents a 79 percent drop in the monthly inflow pace compared with September. As a result, key variables for whether XRP’s short-term rebound continues are whether retail buying can keep defending support levels and whether other demand can offset weak ETF inflows.