[DigitalToday intern reporter Seung-a Yoo (유승아)] Ethereum (ETH) may be able to reach $3,000 by year-end, but an analysis said that given the current trend, a range-bound move or further decline is more likely than a rise.

Crypto outlet U.Today reported on Oct. 14 (local time) that Ethereum traded around $2,505 on the day. It would need to rise about 20 percent over roughly three months to reach $3,000 by December.

Ethereum has fallen about 7 percent since trading near $2,697 on Oct. 6. In late September it moved sideways between support around $2,620 and resistance near $2,800, but it has now fallen below that range. In particular, $2,650 is seen as a level that blocks any price recovery after shifting from former support to resistance.

Key moving averages are also variables that could determine the near-term direction. The 50-day moving average is around $2,492, with the 100-day at $2,321 below it and the 200-day at $2,272. If a closing price forms below $2,492, there could be further declines to $2,321 and even $2,272. In that case, the timing for reaching $3,000 could be pushed back to 2027.

For a rebound, Ethereum would first need to regain $2,650, then break through the $2,775 to $2,825 range and establish itself above that band. If those conditions are met, there is room for a rise to $3,000. Another variable is whether a decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve scheduled for Oct. 28 acts favorably for the market.

In a range-trading scenario, Ethereum could move between $2,300 and $2,800 through December. Another possibility raised was that momentum could fade near $2,700, leaving it unable to exceed $3,000 by year-end.

Supply and demand are also a burden. Spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded net outflows of $85.4 million on Oct. 12 alone, extending the outflow trend. That contrasts with about $445 million in inflows in September. As ETFs are a major source of demand in the market, price upside momentum could weaken if inflows do not recover.

Rising supply is also a source of pressure. The amount of fee-burning through transaction fees is only about 2 percent of new issuance, while total supply is increasing about 0.64 percent. The explanation is that because more tokens are being issued than burned, selling pressure could grow when demand is weak.

Ultimately, to reclaim $3,000 by year-end, ETF inflows would need to revive and the price would need to settle above $2,825 on a closing basis. Until then, range trading or further declines were presented as the more likely scenario.