[DigitalToday reporter Yoonseo Lee] After a sharp drop on Sept. 15, XRP fell below $1.33, turning the area into a key resistance level that will shape the near-term trend.

Blockchain outlet The Crypto Basic reported on Sept. 17 that XRP fell 9 percent in a day in the aftermath of a failed vote on the Clarity Act. It also slipped below the Ichimoku Cloud on the daily chart, a major technical indicator.

XRP is trading around $1.28 and is holding just above $1.2950, the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level. The market is watching whether it can hold $1.2950 and then regain $1.33.

Technical indicators also point to heavy pressure. XRP is moving below both Ichimoku boundary lines. Leading Span A is at $1.3850 and Leading Span B is at $1.3426. With the cloud above the current price, the chart reading has tilted bearish. The conversion line is at $1.3701 and the base line is at $1.3999. XRP staying below that area means it has lost key near-term and mid-term zones at the same time.

There are also signs that the medium- and long-term trend has not fully hardened. The cloud’s width could narrow in the near term and then form a twist, leaving room for a longer-term trend change if the price rebounds. For that, XRP must first reclaim $1.3426, the Leading Span B level, and re-enter the cloud.

Upper resistance levels are relatively clear. Above $1.33, $1.3426, $1.3802, $1.3850 and $1.3999 are packed closely together. The $1.3802 level is the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement, and the $1.38 to $1.40 range is grouped as a strong resistance zone. Above that, a horizontal resistance line at $1.4900 remains. Before that, lower resistance levels would need to be recovered step by step.

On the downside, defending $1.2950 is the first task. If the daily close falls below $1.2950, $1.1815, the next major Fibonacci level, could come into focus as the next support. If additional declines continue, the 0.236 retracement level of $1.1230 could open up. The view is that buying must defend the area around $1.2950 to maintain the current technical structure.

The directional movement index sent mixed signals. The average directional index was 35.28, above 25, which is commonly seen as a meaningful threshold for trend formation. That means XRP is still in a market with a clear directional bias. By contrast, +DI, which indicates upward pressure, was tallied at 25.41, while -DI, which indicates downward pressure, was 17.18. After the Sept. 15 plunge, -DI rose quickly, but +DI is still holding at a higher level.

This correction weakened the technical structure formed after a rise from an August low of $0.9887 to $1.6962. The August rally pushed XRP out of a long period of sideways trading, and $1.33 then became a key support level during the pullback. But a sharp drop on Sept. 15 broke the box-range trading that had lasted for weeks, shifting the market’s focus back to whether $1.33 can be regained.

As a result, the near-term points to watch are relatively clear. The first variable is whether XRP stabilises while holding $1.2950, or whether a break of that area increases the likelihood of a retest of $1.1815. Even if a rebound follows, resistance overhead is likely to remain if XRP fails to reclaim $1.33 on a daily closing basis.