[DigitalToday reporter Yoonseo Lee] XRP may not have finished its correction after a sharp rise in August. Even if a short-term rebound emerges, an analysis said it may only return to a full uptrend after additional declines.

The Crypto Basic, a blockchain outlet, reported on Sept. 14 local time that an hourly Elliott wave analysis interpreted XRP's August rise as wave 1 and the subsequent weakness as a wave 2 correction. At the time of the analysis, XRP was trading around $1.28, below its August peak.

Inflows into spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continued. Inflows over the last two weeks of August totalled $150.28 million. Still, the assessment said it is hard to rule out further correction because a significant portion of the inflows came after prices rose.

On the chart, the August peak of $1.69 was presented as a key reference point. The analysis viewed the rise to that peak as wave 1 and broke the subsequent wave 2 correction into a smaller A-B-C pattern. The wave A low was shown around $1.29, and the wave B rebound high around $1.53. Prices were then pushed back to a Fibonacci zone of about $1.38.

Based on this, one scenario suggested XRP could rebound to $1.53 to $1.62 and then fall again to complete wave 2. That implies a short-term rebound may not immediately lead to a trend reversal, and the process of retesting lows may still remain.

Key downside support levels were cited at $1.29, $1.21 and $1.10. The $1.29 level is a 50 percent Fibonacci retracement zone and is close to the prior wave A low. The $1.21 and $1.10 levels correspond to 61.8 percent and 78.6 percent retracements, respectively.

In particular, $1.10 was presented as a line that would determine the validity of the bullish scenario. The analysis said the possibility of a wave 3 rise remains as long as XRP does not close below that price. If that support breaks, the current wave interpretation may need to be reviewed.

For an uptrend to resume, it first needs to complete the wave 2 correction within the $1.10 to $1.38 support zone and form a strong rebound, the analysis said. In that case, the next target zone was presented at $1.93 to $2.25. A prior resistance band of $1.90 to $2.10 overlaps with that, and was also cited as a zone to watch for a breakout during any rise.

Still, the target price may vary depending on where the correction ends. The analysis said the wave 3 target would be adjusted depending on whether a low forms around $1.29 or drops to $1.10.

In prediction markets, $1.60 was presented as the most likely price level for XRP in September, and a scenario of a decline to around $1.20 was also discussed. The $1.20 level is close to about $1.21, the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement line. The key ahead is likely to be not only whether a short-term rebound occurs, but whether major support levels hold during the subsequent correction.