Elon Musk put about $366 million into at least 40 election contests ahead of the 2026 U.S. midterm elections, emerging as the largest individual donor. Over the same period, SpaceX won $6.78 billion in federal government work, according to compiled data. As Musk's political spending intersects with government contracts and corporate regulation, attention is also focusing on how the election results could affect his businesses.

CNBC reported on Oct. 22 that Musk's political money was concentrated on Republican candidates and related groups. Federal Election Commission filings show at least $276 million has flowed since July to Republican groups and America PAC, a political organisation backed by Musk.

A key variable in this election is whether Republicans will retain control of Congress or Democrats will take the House. If Democrats take the House, there is speculation that investigations and subpoena demands could follow over Musk's companies and federal contracts, as well as work related to the Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, that he carried out under President Donald Trump's administration.

Bruce Freed of the Center for Political Accountability said Musk was trying to maintain friendly relations with Congress and the executive branch, influence regulation and contracts, and protect himself from oversight. Musk did not respond to related questions, but posted on X, formerly Twitter, a message that conveyed the idea that those who live by the sword die by the sword, in reference to the possibility of a Democrat-led investigation. He also said he would identify the people behind those who oppose him.

Texas is cited as the area where Musk's political spending and business interests most directly intersect. Tesla is headquartered in Austin and operates the United States' largest vehicle factory, while SpaceX runs launch facilities at Starbase in southern Texas. The Boring Company is also based in Pflugerville, Texas.

These companies are affected by state government policy on taxes, power supply, permits, infrastructure building and economic development incentives. Of Musk's political spending, at least $189.6 million was allocated to support Republican candidate Ken Paxton. Paxton is a figure backed by Musk in connection with a Texas Senate election.

Democratic candidate James Talarico criticised Musk, saying he was trying to buy a Texas Senate seat. Musk attacked Talarico, and Talarico responded that the political system itself was the problem if it allowed a single billionaire to buy a personal senator.

SpaceX's federal government business is also growing rapidly. Government spending tracker FedScout said SpaceX's federal business since 2008 has exceeded $30.7 billion. Some spending is not included in the tally, including classified contracts and certain outlays related to Starlink terminals and satellite internet used by state governments during disaster recovery.

SpaceX's cumulative awards this year total $6.78 billion, already well above the full-year totals of $3.97 billion in 2025 and $3.8 billion in 2024. In late May, the U.S. Space Force awarded SpaceX $2.29 billion for a military communications network project linked to Golden Dome. Three days later, it signed a $4.16 billion contract for a threat-detection satellite project.

Congress is not the agency that directly signs federal contracts, but it appropriates budgets for the Pentagon and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and oversees their execution. The two agencies are key customers of SpaceX. Hilary Brasees of the nonprofit OpenSecrets said maintaining allies with standing committee authority in Washington could help Musk exert influence in Congress.

Musk's political money also went into battleground states where regulatory disputes are playing out over artificial intelligence infrastructure. America PAC spent a total of $22.7 million on general election outlays in 6 battleground states through Oct. 20. By region, about $8.9 million went to Ohio, about $7.2 million to Michigan and about $2 million to Maine.

In Michigan, the money was used for digital ads, mailers and text and phone outreach supporting Republican candidate Mike Rogers and criticising Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed. In Ohio, ads and text and phone outreach supporting Republican candidate Jon Husted also ran. In both states, the cost burden from data centre operations and regulation of AI development emerged as election issues.

Musk's AI business is also linked to federal procurement. SpaceX's AI unit, formerly xAI, signed a Pentagon contract last July with a $200 million ceiling. Under a contract with the General Services Administration, the Grok chatbot can be used across federal agencies through March 2027.

Lobbying activity in Washington has also expanded. Disclosure filings show SpaceX has spent about $5.3 million on lobbying since January 2025 over NASA budgets, defence spending, military launches, missile defence and procurement issues. Tesla spent about $3.6 million on Washington lobbying over the same period.

Musk spent about $300 million in the 2024 U.S. presidential and congressional elections, backing wins by Trump and Republicans and widening his access to the administration. But his relationship with Trump deteriorated in June 2025 amid conflict over a tax and spending bill, and Trump then raised the possibility of reducing government support and contracts for Musk-related companies.

Musk later appeared at a state dinner attended by Chinese President Xi Jinping and at an AI summit. On Sept. 30, he was appointed co-lead of "Project Meridian", a Pentagon advisory project on future warfare. As his relationship with politics shifts between conflict and cooperation, attention remains on the links between his companies and the government.

Freed said the scale of Musk's political spending was so unusual that it would be hard to find a precedent in recent elections. He said it was rare for an individual donor to put such a large sum into politics in such a short period.

The midterm election is expected to be a test not only of whether Musk-backed candidates win or lose, but also of how Congress's budget and oversight powers intersect with Musk companies' government business, AI regulation and energy infrastructure policy. Still, the fact that political spending and federal contract awards increased at the same time does not by itself allow a conclusion that there is a direct quid pro quo relationship between the two.