SpaceX swung to a third-quarter net profit of $4.4 billion. Revenue rose 161% from a year earlier, and the possibility of a merger with Tesla also came into focus. The stock surged nearly 10% in premarket trade.

Blockchain media outlet Decrypt reported on Oct. 21 that SpaceX posted a third-quarter net profit of $4.4 billion. That was a sharp improvement from a $541 million net loss in the second quarter and an $1.1 billion net loss a year earlier. Diluted earnings per share came to $0.35.

Revenue rose 161% from a year earlier to $14.58 billion. Operating profit was $2.79 billion, swinging to profit from an operating loss of $273 million a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA was $8.81 billion, up 306% from a year earlier.

Investor sentiment also improved after the earnings release. SpaceX shares were up 9.66% at $162.06 in premarket trade. That marked a sharp rise from the previous session's close of $147.79.

Net profit reflected a significant contribution from non-operating items. Net profit exceeded operating profit by $1.613 billion. Other income of $1.025 billion, net interest income of $198 million and a corporate tax benefit of $390 million contributed. Of other income, $561 million was classified as related-party income.

The market is also watching the possibility of a merger with Tesla alongside the earnings improvement. Elon Musk said on the earnings conference call that shareholders asked independent outside-director committees at SpaceX and Tesla to review the possibility of a merger between the two companies.

Musk indicated support for a potential merger, citing the ability to secure collaboration opportunities in artificial intelligence, chip design, robotics and connectivity. He added that a merger has not been finalised and that the two committees have not reached a stage of agreeing deal terms.

Conflicts of interest are also a variable. Musk, who leads both companies, said he cannot participate in discussions by the relevant committees. Tesla shareholder approval is also a hurdle. Musk said a deal would require support equal to at least 50% of Tesla's total outstanding shares, not just a simple majority vote.

By business segment, the superintelligence segment led revenue growth. Third-quarter revenue in the segment was $7.56 billion, up about 830% from $813 million a year earlier. It accounted for about 52% of total revenue. New cloud service contracts, the acquisition of AI coding company Cursor, and broader adoption of Grok were cited as drivers of growth.

In profitability terms, the connectivity segment led. Operating profit in the superintelligence segment was $431 million, reflecting $1.2 billion in stock-based compensation costs tied to the Cursor acquisition. The connectivity segment posted revenue of $5.25 billion and operating profit of $2.37 billion. Connectivity revenue rose 69% from a year earlier, and Starlink consumer subscribers totalled 13.6 million as of end-September.

Investment in AI infrastructure is expected to expand further. SpaceX's third-quarter capital expenditure was $19.59 billion, of which $16.44 billion was allocated to the superintelligence segment. Chief Financial Officer Brett Johnson (브렛 존슨) projected fourth-quarter capital expenditure of $35 billion to $40 billion as additional computing infrastructure comes online.

Johnson projected total revenue of $33 billion to $37 billion in the first quarter of 2027. He said visibility on the computing services contract pipeline has improved. That means expectations for revenue growth alongside expansion of the AI business and the burden of large-scale investment are both increasing.

A comparison with longer-term share performance shows both upside potential and pressure factors. The premarket price of $162.06 is about 0.8% below the Oct. 12 closing price of $163.42, but about 20% above the initial public offering price of $135. It is about 28% below the intraday high of $225.64 in June.

Tokenised shares also rose. CoinMarketCap data showed SpaceX tokenised share SPCXB traded at $161.94, up 10.56% over 24 hours. SPCXB is a separate product from actual SpaceX shares traded on Nasdaq, and its 24-hour change calculation differs from that of the regular stock market.

Ultimately, SpaceX's future share performance depends on whether earnings improvement continues and whether expanded AI infrastructure investment leads to profitability. If merger discussions with Tesla develop into an actual transaction, it could also affect valuation, but for now neither the merger decision nor the terms have been finalised.