A European Union shift of corporate vehicles to electric models could create up to 344,000 additional jobs by 2030 if the bloc accelerates the transition and focuses financial support on vehicles made in Europe, a study showed. It also found that stronger demand for electric vehicles could boost the competitiveness of Europe’s auto and battery industries.

CleanTechnica reported on Oct. 21 that the European Federation for Transport and Environment (T&E) released an analysis of the economic effects of the Clean Corporate Vehicles Regulation (CCVR) that it commissioned from the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI).

The regulation proposed by the European Commission aims to convert at least 45 percent of newly registered vehicles at large companies to zero-emission vehicles by 2030. The target share rises to 69 percent when low-emission vehicles, including plug-in hybrids, are included. It also includes a plan from 2028 to limit financial support, such as tax breaks and subsidies for corporate vehicles, to low- and zero-emission vehicles produced in Europe.

The researchers estimated that about 196,000 jobs would be added even if the policy impact is moderate. Under a stronger scenario in which the transition accelerates and the share of electric vehicles in new corporate cars rises to 69 percent by 2030, the increase in jobs reached 344,000.

In that case, economic value added in Europe was estimated to rise to 48 billion euros from an earlier forecast of 28 billion euros, and related investment to 38 billion euros from 20 billion euros.

By country, Germany was expected to secure about 134,000 additional jobs and Poland 38,500. Poland’s battery cell production could rise to 81 GWh by 2030 from 31 GWh.

Volkswagen, which is also pushing restructuring, was analysed as being able to gain up to 56,300 direct employment effects under the stronger policy scenario.

T&E warned, "If conditions for supporting European-made electric vehicles are eased or implementation is delayed, automakers’ incentives to produce locally could weaken."

The figures are estimates from an economic model premised on policy implementation, and actual employment and investment could vary depending on whether the regulation is finalised and companies’ production strategies.