[DigitalToday reporter Choi Jae-won] An analysis said a “climate free-riding” strategy of continuing to use fossil fuels while leaving carbon cuts to other countries could instead increase economic losses for some countries. It said oil and gas importers, in particular, could remain exposed for longer to the burden of fuel imports and the risk of price swings the more they delay the energy transition.

In an article for CleanTechnica on Oct. 20 (local time), energy strategist Michael Barnard (마이클 바너드) said falling prices for solar, wind and batteries have changed countries’ climate-action cost-benefit calculations. In the past, it could appear more advantageous in the short term to keep existing coal, oil and gas facilities rather than adopt expensive low-carbon technologies. Now, the range of electrification options such as electric vehicles and heat pumps has expanded significantly, he said.

Fossil-fuel importing countries are affected by international prices, exchange rates and overseas supply chains each time they buy fuel. By contrast, investing in clean power and electrification can shift a substantial share of spending to generation facilities, power grids and equipment. Over the long term, it could also create room to cut both fuel import bills and air pollution.

Still, cheap solar modules do not necessarily translate immediately into lower end-user electricity rates. Grid expansion, energy storage systems, power demand management and financing costs all need to be weighed. Households may also struggle to realise long-term savings from electric vehicles or heat pumps if they lack the funds to cover upfront purchase costs.

The gains and losses vary by country. For fossil fuel exporters, oil and gas export earnings support public finances and jobs, making it difficult to offset losses solely by expanding clean energy at home. In countries with high interest rates, financing costs can push up power prices even when equipment prices are low. The fact that transition costs are felt immediately while benefits appear later is also an obstacle to policy implementation.

Not only the existing energy industry, but also renewable energy developers and transmission operators, may seek investment and subsidy structures that benefit them. Barnard suggested comparing new transmission-line construction with storage and improvements in using existing facilities, and making clear that public support has performance criteria and an end date. The key is to verify not the technology’s green image but the actual costs and benefits, and who bears the burden.