China's memory chipmaker ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) is expected to sharply expand DRAM production capacity through 2028, but the supply improvement felt by global PC consumers is likely to be limited.

TechRadar reported on Oct. 19 that Counterpoint Research and TrendForce expect CXMT's DRAM wafer output to rise from about 320,000 wafers this year to 420,000 in 2027.

That would be an increase of more than 30 percent in a year. Another forecast said capacity could reach 500,000 to 600,000 wafers in 2028. Under the most optimistic scenario, capacity would almost double from this year.

CXMT's expansion plan is drawing attention because it increases production of commodity DRAM used in PCs, unlike high-bandwidth memory, or HBM, needed for the artificial intelligence industry. Still, the production increase is unlikely to immediately ease the global memory shortage.

The key is where the additional output is sold. With sizable memory demand in China, most production is likely to be supplied to the domestic market. The Chinese government may also prioritize meeting domestic demand over overseas sales, limiting the impact on memory supply outside Asia.

CXMT memory is already used by some Western manufacturers, but supply remains limited. Price competitiveness is also not clear. CXMT memory prices are known to be at a similar level to Samsung Electronics products. That means overseas consumers may still find it difficult to buy cheaper memory even if output rises.

There was also a warning that the memory supply crunch could be prolonged. Dell CEO Michael Dell (마이클 델) said in an interview with the Wall Street Journal that the memory supply problem could last up to 4 years and continue until 2030. He also added weight to industry concerns that the memory shortage could worsen next year.

CXMT's expansion could help increase supplies of commodity DRAM, but it is unlikely to shift the supply-demand balance enough for consumers outside China to feel it. With memory prices rising and shortages persisting, future market conditions are likely to depend not only on capacity expansion but also on how actual supply is allocated by region.