The global smartphone market is in a slump as memory prices surge, and Apple is expected to be the only major manufacturer to increase shipments this year, a forecast showed. It also raised the possibility that Apple could keep the No. 1 spot in the global smartphone market, ahead of Samsung Electronics.

According to IT outlet 9to5Mac, GF Securities analysts Jeff Pu (제프 푸) and Henry Hwang (헨리 황) said in an investment report that Apple’s 2026 smartphone shipments are expected to rise 4 percent from a year earlier to 257 million units.

By contrast, they forecast global smartphone shipments this year will fall 14.2 percent from a year earlier to 1.08 billion units. They predicted Apple’s global market share will expand to 24 percent this year from 19 percent in 2024 and 20 percent in 2025.

Samsung Electronics’ expected shipments are 241 million units, roughly unchanged from a year earlier. If the forecast is correct, Apple would lead Samsung Electronics by about 16 million units and remain No. 1 globally for a third straight year.

Rising memory chip prices are cited as a key reason for the market downturn. The two analysts said soaring component costs are prompting manufacturers to cut production and raise product prices, making 2026 to 2027 one of the toughest periods for the smartphone industry.

Apple is also facing difficulties in new product sales. The iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max are seen as falling short of expectations in market response due to consumer complaints about weight and competition with the foldable iPhone Duo.

Production constraints have also emerged. The iPhone Duo’s production plan for this year was cut to 6 million units from 7 million due to hinge supply issues. The iPhone 18 Pro lineup’s production plan was also lowered to 72 million units due to component issues related to a variable-aperture camera.

The iPhone Duo, however, is showing strong early demand, with expected delivery dates in the United States after preorders pushed back to late January 2027.

GF Securities acknowledged the possibility that Apple could expand its market dominance, but maintained its investment rating of hold and kept its target price at $369.