Cardano (ADA) has recently shown a short-term rebound, but is still down 68 percent over one year.

On Sept. 28, blockchain media outlet U.Today reported that ADA entered a rising range over 7, 14 and 30 days, but its 1-year return recorded the steepest weakness among major periods.

ADA stayed weak from September 2025 to June 2026. Of the 10 months in that period, it closed higher in only 1 month, April 2026. The price slid to $0.138 in June 2026 from $0.954 in September 2025, and also fell below the 50-week moving average of $0.451.

A rebound appeared after July. If ADA finishes September higher, it will post gains for a third straight month. Some in the broader crypto market view October as a strong period, but Cardano's past moves were somewhat different.

Cardano fell more than 17 percent in October 2018 and rose 6.19 percent in October 2019. It then fell 8.27 percent in October 2020 and slipped 7 percent in October 2021. It fell 6.22 percent in October 2022 and rose 15.35 percent in October 2023, but dropped 8.82 percent in October 2024 and fell 24.42 percent in October 2025. Of eight Octobers since 2018, it closed higher only twice.

That has led to views that it is too early to expect a trend reversal based on October alone. For ADA to reverse course, a recovery in buying interest needs to be confirmed first. It is seen as a signal of improving momentum only if volume strengthens further and both highs and lows continue to rise.

The short-term price is showing a pause. As of the time of writing, ADA was at $0.247, down 3.22 percent over 24 hours. The move reflected crypto bulls easing the pace after a strong rebound last week.

Macro variables are also seen as key market drivers this week. Investors are watching the personal consumption expenditures price index, the ISM manufacturing index and nonfarm payrolls. These indicators could affect expectations for U.S. Federal Reserve rate hikes and broader market moves.

Cardano network upgrade work is also under way. Intersect presented the node version 11.1.2 update as a top priority for stake pool operators and node operators, and said the Dijkstra integration was also continuing.

Cardano node 11.1.2 was released as a required fix version to correct problems identified on the testnet on Sept. 17. It is not a release for hard fork preparation, but was presented as an important milestone in initial impact assessment and integration work. On the mainnet, Haskell and Dingo are already producing blocks, and Amaru and Girolamo are also making progress to the mainnet block production stage.

As a result, whether ADA's short-term rebound continues now depends less on October seasonality than on whether a recovery in buying interest, changes in volume and progress in network upgrades align.