Gold has rebounded 17 percent from a March 23 low of $4,105 an ounce to around $4,676 on April 3, but the basis for the rise remains unstable.

On April 3, blockchain media outlet BeInCrypto judged that the surge was a rebound that rose without fully breaking its correlation with oil prices, and that a pullback could create a stronger base for gains than further upside.

According to the XAU-WTI correlation matrix, the 50-period correlation coefficient between spot gold and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude is currently -0.10. It has moved down from positive territory in March but has not yet entered clearly negative territory. From mid-October to early November last year, when the coefficient stayed in negative territory around -0.88, gold rose the most strongly. By contrast, pullbacks followed in late January at 0.85 and in early March at a positive peak.

The options market also showed a strong tendency to chase the rebound. The put-call volume ratio for the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) fell to 0.70 on April 2 from 1.35 on March 26. The open interest ratio rose to 0.56 from 0.53. That reflects fewer puts for downside protection and more bets on gains.

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission's March 24 COT report also confirmed an expansion in net buying by non-commercial accounts. Speculative long positions rose by 4,900 contracts to 220,861, while shorts fell by 3,558 contracts to 52,534. Total open interest, however, fell by 7,463 contracts from the previous report to 403,925. Despite the increase in longs, the drop in total positions suggests short covering had a large impact.

In price terms, a close above $4,802 on the eight-hour chart was presented as a condition for additional gains. The upper resistance is $5,043, and above that is $5,422, the March 1 peak. On the downside, $4,490 is the first support level, followed by a support zone at $4,297 and $4,141. The $4,105 level is the starting point of this rebound.

Gold has succeeded in a short-term rebound, but assessments say it is still too early to conclude a trend of strength when looking at its correlation with oil prices and derivatives market flows. In particular, the fact that prices have continued to rise without that relationship being rearranged into clearly negative territory suggests the rebound may be relying on short-term positioning rather than structural strength.

Some in the market also raise the view that a pause could further solidify the foundation for medium-term gains. As whether gold breaks above $4,802 is cited as a fork in the road for further gains, analysis says the sustainability of a subsequent rally could increase further if buying is confirmed again during a test of lower support levels.