Apple’s first foldable iPhone, the iPhone Duo, is forecast to take a 29.8% share of the global foldable smartphone market in 2027.

On Oct. 28, IT outlet 9to5Mac reported that market research firm TrendForce reaffirmed its earlier forecast in its latest report issued after iPhone Duo shipments began.

The key point is that Apple could quickly become a major player as soon as it enters the foldable phone market. TrendForce issued a report the day after Apple unveiled the iPhone Duo last month and estimated shipments of the first foldable iPhone would reach 5 million units by the end of 2026. Based on that forecast, Apple’s foldable market share in 2026 would be 24.8%.

It now went a step further and put its 2027 market share forecast at 29.8%. It maintained its view that the iPhone Duo will secure strong demand from the initial launch period. On the assumption that initial demand for the iPhone Duo is strong, TrendForce said Apple could take about 30% of the global foldable smartphone market in 2027.

If that forecast is realised, Apple would rank second in the foldable market in 2027. TrendForce estimated Samsung’s share would fall to 31.9% in 2027 from 35.1% in 2026, while Huawei’s share would drop to 21.3% from 24.8%. Apple is expected to stand behind Samsung and ahead of Huawei.

Overall market growth differs sharply before and after Apple’s entry. In its earlier report, TrendForce put the overall foldable smartphone market growth rate in 2026 at 0.5%. It predicted Android camp shipments would fall by more than 20% from a year earlier in the same year. That implies the market’s expansion is limited with existing Android makers alone.

In 2027, it forecast the market would expand to 23.5 million units. That would be a 16.3% increase from a year earlier. TrendForce said Apple’s entry could become a catalyst for future growth. The report noted that Apple’s entry could drive future growth through improvements in foldable technology. It added that new use cases for artificial intelligence could further lift demand.

These figures show the centre of gravity in the foldable phone market is driven more by the participation of major manufacturers than by product diversity alone. In particular, TrendForce reaffirmed its existing forecast about a week after Apple began shipments, allowing for an interpretation that early sales trends are increasing the possibility of a shift in the competitive landscape.

Still, this is only TrendForce’s forecast. Actual market share could change depending on future shipment volumes and the pace of overall market growth. Even so, it is clear that Apple’s entry has become a variable in a foldable market that had stalled. Foldable market competition in 2027 is expected to hinge on Samsung’s defence, Apple’s expansion and whether Huawei can hold its ground.